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A nonparametric test of dispersion with paired replicates data is described which involves jackknifing logarithmic transformations of the ratio of variance estimates for the pre- and post-treatment populations. Results from a Monte Carlo simulation show that the test performs well under Ho and has good power properties. Examples are given of applying the procedure on psychiatric data.
In contrast to Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment, a model in which a comparison pair and its complement are assumed to give rise to two different distributions of differences is considered. The consequences of this revised model on scaling problems is developed.
Epidemiological and clinical trial evidence indicates that n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) intake is cardioprotective. Nevertheless, claims that n-6 PUFA intake promotes inflammation and oxidative stress prevail. This narrative review aims to provide health professionals with an up-to-date evidence overview to provide the requisite background to address patient/client concerns about oils containing predominantly unsaturated fatty acids (UFA), including MUFA and PUFA. Edible plant oils, commonly termed vegetable oils, are derived from vegetables, nuts, seeds, fruits and cereal grains. Substantial variation exists in the fatty acid composition of these oils; however, all are high in UFA, while being relatively low in saturated fatty acids (SFA), except for tropical oils. Epidemiological evidence indicates that higher PUFA intake is associated with lower risk of incident CVD and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Additionally, replacement of SFA with PUFA is associated with reduced risk of CVD and T2DM. Clinical trials show higher intake of UFA from plant sources improves major CVD risk factors, including reducing levels of atherogenic lipids and lipoproteins. Importantly, clinical trials show that increased n-6 PUFA (linoleic acid) intake does not increase markers of inflammation or oxidative stress. Evidence-based guidelines from authoritative health and scientific organisations recommend intake of non-tropical vegetable oils, which contain MUFA and n-6 PUFA, as part of healthful dietary patterns. Specifically, vegetable oils rich in UFA should be consumed instead of rich sources of SFA, including butter, tallow, lard, palm and coconut oils.
How was trust created and reinforced between the inhabitants of medieval and early modern cities? And how did the social foundations of trusting relationships change over time? Current research highlights the role of kinship, neighbourhood, and associations, particularly guilds, in creating ‘relationships of trust’ and social capital in the face of high levels of migration, mortality, and economic volatility, but tells us little about their relative importance or how they developed. We uncover a profound shift in the contribution of family and guilds to trust networks among the middling and elite of one of Europe's major cities, London, over three centuries, from the 1330s to the 1680s. We examine almost 15,000 networks of sureties created to secure orphans’ inheritances to measure the presence of trusting relationships connected by guild membership, family, and place. We uncover a profound increase in the role of kinship – a re-embedding of trust within the family – and a decline of the importance of shared guild membership in connecting Londoners who secured orphans’ inheritances together. These developments indicate a profound transformation in the social fabric of urban society.
New experiments have revealed that the addition of a small amount of wood ash doubles the angle of repose of granulated ice at −10°C, but has little effect at −30°C. It is hypothesized that this behavior may be explained in terms of the freezing of water that is formed at the higher temperature through the reaction of salt within the ash.
An academic hospital implemented a severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antigen-test–based strategy to facilitate discontinuation of precautions for patients admitted with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Of 171 patients that underwent antigen testing, 68% had an initial negative test performed a median of 5 days after admission. Antigen testing reduced isolation time by 144 hours.
This national pre-pandemic survey compared demand and capacity of adult community eating disorder services (ACEDS) with NHS England (NHSE) commissioning guidance.
Results
Thirteen services in England and Scotland responded (covering 10.7 million population). Between 2016–2017 and 2019–2020 mean referral rates increased by 18.8%, from 378 to 449/million population. Only 3.7% of referrals were from child and adolescent eating disorder services (CEDS-CYP), but 46% of patients were aged 18–25 and 54% were aged >25. Most ACEDS had waiting lists and rationed access. Many could not provide full medical monitoring, adapt treatment for comorbidities, offer assertive outreach or provide seamless transitions. For patient volume, the ACEDS workforce budget was 15%, compared with the NHSE workforce calculator recommendations for CEDS-CYP. Parity required £7 million investment/million population for the ACEDS.
Clinical implications
This study highlights the severe pressure in ACEDS, which has increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. Substantial investment is required to ensure NHS ACEDS meet national guidance, offer evidence-based treatment, reduce risk and preventable deaths, and achieve parity with CEDS-CYP.
A ‘control’ provides a point of clinical comparison for a new intervention, allowing researchers and clinicians to draw more confident conclusions about the effectiveness or potential harm of a given, often novel, therapy. Although this aspect of a trial's design provides the basis from which interventional impact is measured, it is often less closely examined. This commentary appraises a Cochrane Review that compares various controls in common use in modern psychiatric research and aims to characterise their effects on the outcomes of that research.
While in the United Kingdom, the government was initially slow to recognize the profound dangers of the COVID-19 pandemic, soon after Prime Minister Boris Johnson's initial plea to the public to ‘stay at home’, in March 2021, emergency legislation was rushed through parliament. On 25 March, the 350-page Coronavirus Act 2020 received royal assent, bringing the biggest restrictions on civil liberties in a generation into law the following day. Overnight, the Coronavirus Act, along with the broader raft of legal restrictions under The Health Protection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020, made it unlawful to undertake a wide range of hitherto economically essential, prosocial and noncriminal activities. Even as the Act was rushed through parliament, civil liberties organizations were alerting parliamentarians to its dangers (Gidda, 2020).
As antiracist commentators and academics forewarned (Frazer-Carroll, 2020; Khan, 2020), racial disproportionality in policing has endured and often increased through the pandemic. As the first ‘lockdown’ came into effect, stop and search practices ‘surged’ despite the steep drop in crime rates (Grierson, 2020). Limited and prone to undercounting as they may be, Home Office data show that in the year ending March 2021, stop and search practices (under Section 1 of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act 1984) increased significantly to reach their highest level in seven years, impacting most on racially minoritized men (Home Office, 2022). Home Office data (2021) also show an increase in use of force for the year ending March 2021. This was racially disproportionate too, with Black people accounting for 16 per cent of those affected (though they make up just 3 per cent of the population according to the 2011 Census), and Asian people accounting for 8 per cent (7 per cent of the population according to the 2011 Census). In the summer of 2020, these patterns coalesced with mass global protests against racist police violence. The police murder of George Floyd in the United States catalyzed millions to march under the banner of Black Lives Matter (BLM) and spoke to the ongoing police brutality faced by racially minoritized people in Britain (Joseph-Salisbury et al, 2020).
In general, models for thermal effects of nuclear weapons are not as well developed as models for blast and radiation effects, yet casualties resulting from fires and burns in a nuclear detonation would significantly impact civil defense and emergency healthcare. Previous studies have conducted in-depth analysis of the various atmospheric conditions that affect the thermal radiation transmissivity. However, such models have yet to consider the role that buildings play in the urban environment to estimate the casualties from the thermal effect more accurately.
Method:
A three-dimensional model of the area within a three-mile radius of the detonation site in Atlanta, Georgia, USA was created in Blender. To represent the thermal energy resulting from a 15 kiloton, near-surface burst, a point light was created with a power of 96,725 gigawatts and a radius of 81 meters. Using the Cycles render engine, the resulting light/shadow was orthographically captured directly above the scene.
Results:
The rendered model demonstrated the attenuating effects of the built, urban environment. Nearly half (46.82%) of the pixels in the resulting raster were black, or regions that were not exposed to any thermal energy. Slightly less than a quarter (22.32%) of the pixels were white or light gray, or regions that received mostly direct thermal energy. The remaining regions (30.86% of the pixels) were dark gray, or regions that were initially in shadow from the thermal pulse but received thermal energy via reflection from nearby buildings.
Conclusion:
As the thermal pulse travels at the speed of light, it arrives at a location before the blast wave. As such, the built urban environment offers protection from the thermal energy released during a nuclear detonation. Future studies that incorporate this thermal model may more accurately determine the quantity and geospatial distribution of burn casualties in the aftermath of a nuclear detonation.
Weather significantly affects the distribution of fallout radiation resulting from a nuclear detonation. Prior nuclear detonation models have either utilized a “typical” day for the city of interest or have chosen conditions that optimize fallout radiation. However, models that aid emergency planners should utilize representative weather conditions to capture the most likely distribution of fallout radiation for the region of interest.
Method:
Fallout radiation resulting from an improvised nuclear device detonation in Atlanta, Georgia, USA was simulated for each day in 2019 using the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) software and weather from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). A partition around medoids cluster analysis was conducted, based on the characteristics of the plumes, population at risk, and estimated proportion of fatalities. A multinomial logistic regression, a decision tree, and a random forest model were then used to predict the cluster from surface-level weather data.
Results:
On average, the fallout plume was 160.25km long, had an area of 3,174.44 km2, and was angled 83.5° from due north. The plume on average contained 3,668,173 individuals at risk for exposure and caused 416,8908 casualties. Four clusters were identified to represent the distribution of fallout radiation. The random forest model was best able to predict the cluster using surface-level weather data, with an average accuracy of 57.24% (kappa = 0.385). The variable importance plot suggests north-westerly winds, cloud coverage at detonation, whether it is summer, and average temperature are among the most important variables for classification.
Conclusion:
Meaningful representation of the variation in the distribution of fallout radiation is imperative while creating nuclear detonation models. While an analysis of the fallout distribution throughout a calendar year provides important insight, future research may examine longer study periods to better understand the climatological impacts on fallout radiation.
To provide comprehensive population-level estimates of the burden of healthcare-associated influenza.
Design:
Retrospective cross-sectional study.
Setting:
US Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) during 2012–2013 through 2018–2019 influenza seasons.
Patients:
Laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalizations in an 8-county catchment area in Tennessee.
Methods:
The incidence of healthcare-associated influenza was determined using the traditional definition (ie, positive influenza test after hospital day 3) in addition to often underrecognized cases associated with recent post-acute care facility admission or a recent acute care hospitalization for a noninfluenza illness in the preceding 7 days.
Results:
Among the 5,904 laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalizations, 147 (2.5%) had traditionally defined healthcare-associated influenza. When we included patients with a positive influenza test obtained in the first 3 days of hospitalization and who were either transferred to the hospital directly from a post-acute care facility or who were recently discharged from an acute care facility for a noninfluenza illness in the preceding 7 days, we identified an additional 1,031 cases (17.5% of all influenza-related hospitalizations).
Conclusions:
Including influenza cases associated with preadmission healthcare exposures with traditionally defined cases resulted in an 8-fold higher incidence of healthcare-associated influenza. These results emphasize the importance of capturing other healthcare exposures that may serve as the initial site of viral transmission to provide more comprehensive estimates of the burden of healthcare-associated influenza and to inform improved infection prevention strategies.
Predeath grief conceptualizes complex feelings of loss experienced for someone who is still living and is linked to poor emotional well-being. The Road Less Travelled program aimed to help carers of people with rarer dementias identify and process predeath grief. This study evaluated the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary effectiveness of this program.
Design:
Pre–post interventional mixed methods study.
Setting:
Online videoconference group program for carers across the UK held in 2021.
Participants:
Nine family carers of someone living with a rare form of dementia. Eight were female and one male (mean age 58) with two facilitators.
Intervention:
The Road Less Travelled is an online, facilitated, group-based program that aims to help carers of people with rarer dementias to explore and accept feelings of grief and loss. It involved six fortnightly 2-hour sessions.
Measurements:
We collected measures for a range of well-being outcomes at baseline (T1), post-intervention (T2), and 3 months post-intervention (T3). We conducted interviews with participants and facilitators at T2.
Results:
Participant attendance was 98% across all sessions. Findings from the semistructured interviews supported the acceptability of the program and identified improvements in carer well-being. Trends in the outcome measures suggested an improvement in quality of life and a reduction in depression.
Conclusion:
The program was feasible to conduct and acceptable to participants. Qualitative reports and high attendance suggest perceived benefits to carers, including increased acceptance of grief, and support the need for a larger-scale pilot study to determine effectiveness.
Artificial illumination is a fundamental human need. Burning wood and other materials usually in hearths and fireplaces extended daylight hours, whilst the use of flammable substances in torches offered light on the move. It is increasingly understood that pottery played a role in light production. In this study, we focus on ceramic oval bowls, made and used primarily by hunter-gatherer-fishers of the circum-Baltic over a c. 2000 year period beginning in the mid-6th millennium cal bc. Oval bowls commonly occur alongside larger (cooking) vessels. Their function as ‘oil lamps’ for illumination has been proposed on many occasions but only limited direct evidence has been secured to test this functional association. This study presents the results of molecular and isotopic analysis of preserved organic residues obtained from 115 oval bowls from 25 archaeological sites representing a wide range of environmental settings. Our findings confirm that the oval bowls of the circum-Baltic were used primarily for burning fats and oils, predominantly for the purposes of illumination. The fats derive from the tissues of marine, freshwater, and terrestrial organisms. Bulk isotope data of charred surface deposits show a consistently different pattern of use when oval bowls are compared to other pottery vessels within the same assemblage. It is suggested that hunter-gatherer-fishers around the 55th parallel commonly deployed material culture for artificial light production but the evidence is restricted to times and places where more durable technologies were employed, including the circum-Baltic.
Quizzes are a ubiquitous part of the dementia social care landscape. This article explores why. Using an ethnographic approach which draws on close analysis of communication, we examine dementia quizzes as a ‘social practice’, and what such a lens can tell us about their popularity in social care settings. Vignettes of real interactions drawn from ten different quizzes recorded in four different group settings attended by 28 people living with dementia and 15 staff members are presented to highlight particular issues. We show that the conditions of post-diagnosis dementia social care are uniquely well suited to an activity such as quizzes which are malleable, requiring little preparation or materials, and impose a communication framework which can help to organise the interactional space. Quizzes also draw on previously forged interactional competences, such as turn-taking and question–answer sequences, a skill that has been shown to persist even as dementia progresses. Finally, we argue that the meaning of quizzes with people with dementia feeds into wider societal values and associations attached to memory, dementia and personhood. The extent to which quizzes are akin to a ‘test’ or a fun and enjoyable social activity rests in how they are enacted. We suggest that practice can be adapted, developed and made more inclusive through input from people living with dementia themselves.
Information on the Omega-3 Index (O3I) in the United Kingdom (UK) is scarce. The UK-Biobank (UKBB) contains data on total plasma n3-PUFA% and DHA% measured by NMR. The aim of our study was to create an equation to estimate the O3I (eO3I) from these data. We first performed an inter-laboratory experiment with 250 random blood samples in which the O3I was measured in erythrocytes by GC, and total n3 % and DHA% were measured in plasma by NMR. The best predictor of eO3I included both DHA% and a derived metric, the total n3 %–DHA%. Together these explained 65 % of the variability (r = 0·832, P < 0·0001). We then estimated the O3I in 117 108 UKBB subjects and correlated it with demographic and lifestyle variables in multivariable-adjusted models. The mean eO3I was 5·58 % (sd 2·35 %) in this UKBB cohort. Several predictors were significantly correlated with eO3I (all P < 0·0001). In general order of impact and with directionality (–, inverse and +, direct): oily-fish consumption (+), fish oil supplement use (+), female sex (+), older age (+), alcohol use (+), smoking (–), higher waist circumference and BMI (–), lower socioeconomic status and less education (–). Only 20·5 % of eO3I variability could be explained by predictors investigated, and oily fish consumption accounted for 7·0 % of that. With the availability of the eO3I in the UKBB cohort, we will be in a position to link risk for a variety of diseases with this commonly used and well-documented marker of n3-PUFA biostatus.
Many male prisoners have significant mental health problems, including anxiety and depression. High proportions struggle with homelessness and substance misuse.
Aims
This study aims to evaluate whether the Engager intervention improves mental health outcomes following release.
Method
The design is a parallel randomised superiority trial that was conducted in the North West and South West of England (ISRCTN11707331). Men serving a prison sentence of 2 years or less were individually allocated 1:1 to either the intervention (Engager plus usual care) or usual care alone. Engager included psychological and practical support in prison, on release and for 3–5 months in the community. The primary outcome was the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation Outcome Measure (CORE-OM), 6 months after release. Primary analysis compared groups based on intention-to-treat (ITT).
Results
In total, 280 men were randomised out of the 396 who were potentially eligible and agreed to participate; 105 did not meet the mental health inclusion criteria. There was no mean difference in the ITT complete case analysis between groups (92 in each arm) for change in the CORE-OM score (1.1, 95% CI –1.1 to 3.2, P = 0.325) or secondary analyses. There were no consistent clinically significant between-group differences for secondary outcomes. Full delivery was not achieved, with 77% (108/140) receiving community-based contact.
Conclusions
Engager is the first trial of a collaborative care intervention adapted for prison leavers. The intervention was not shown to be effective using standard outcome measures. Further testing of different support strategies for prison with mental health problems is needed.