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The axisymmetric nozzle mechanism is the core part for thrust vectoring of aero engine, which contains complex rigid-flexible coupled multibody system with joints clearance and significantly reduces the efficiency in modeling and calculation, therefore the kinematics and dynamics analysis of axisymmetric vectoring nozzle mechanism based on deep neural network is proposed. The deep neural network model of the axisymmetric vector nozzle is established according to the limited training data from the physical dynamic model and then used to predict the kinematics and dynamics response of the axisymmetric vector nozzle. This study analyses the effects of joint clearance on the kinematics and dynamics of the axisymmetric vector nozzle mechanism by a data-driven model. It is found that the angular acceleration of the expanding blade and the driving force are mostly affected by joint clearance followed by the angle, angular velocity and position of the expanding blade. Larger joint clearance results in more pronounced fluctuations of the dynamic response of the mechanism, which is due to the greater relative velocity and contact force between the bushing and the pin. Since axisymmetric vector nozzles are highly complex nonlinear systems, traditional numerical methods of dynamics are extremely time-consuming. Our work indicates that the data-driven approach greatly reduces the computational cost while maintaining accuracy, and can be used for rapid evaluation and iterative computation of complex multibody dynamics of engine nozzle mechanism.
Polarized electron beam production via laser wakefield acceleration in pre-polarized plasma is investigated by particle-in-cell simulations. The evolution of the electron beam polarization is studied based on the Thomas–Bargmann–Michel–Telegdi equation for the transverse and longitudinal self-injection, and the depolarization process is found to be influenced by the injection schemes. In the case of transverse self-injection, as found typically in the bubble regime, the spin precession of the accelerated electrons is mainly influenced by the wakefield. However, in the case of longitudinal injection in the quasi-1D regime (for example, F. Y. Li et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 135002 (2013)), the direction of electron spin oscillates in the laser field. Since the electrons move around the laser axis, the net influence of the laser field is nearly zero and the contribution of the wakefield can be ignored. Finally, an ultra-short electron beam with polarization of $99\%$ can be obtained using longitudinal self-injection.
This paper proposes a fixed-time anti-saturation (FT-AS) control scheme with a simple control loop for the 6-Degree-of-Freedom tracking (6-DOF) control problem of spacecraft with parameter uncertainties, external disturbances and input saturation. Considering the external disturbance and parameter uncertainties, the dynamical model of the tracking error is established. The traditional methods of handling input saturation usually add anti-saturation subsystems in the control system to suppress the impact of input overshoot. However, this paper directly inputs the input overshoot into the tracking error model, thus constructing a modified lumped disturbance term that includes the influence of input overshoot. Then, a novel fixed-time disturbance observer (FT-DO) is designed to estimate and compensate for this modified lumped disturbance. Therefore, there is no need to add the anti-saturation structures in the control loop, significantly reducing the complexity of the system. Finally, an observer-based fixed-time non-singular terminal sliding mode (FT-NTSM) controller is designed to guarantee the fixed-time stability of the whole system. In this way, the convergence time of the proposed scheme does not depend on the system’s initial conditions. Simulation results illustrate that the proposed method keeps the control input within the limit while achieving high-precision tracking control of attitude and position.
The great demographic pressure brings tremendous volume of beef demand. The key to solve this problem is the growth and development of Chinese cattle. In order to find molecular markers conducive to the growth and development of Chinese cattle, sequencing was used to determine the position of copy number variations (CNVs), bioinformatics analysis was used to predict the function of ZNF146 gene, real-time fluorescent quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was used for CNV genotyping and one-way analysis of variance was used for association analysis. The results showed that there exists CNV in Chr 18: 47225201-47229600 (5.0.1 version) of ZNF146 gene through the early sequencing results in the laboratory and predicted ZNF146 gene was expressed in liver, skeletal muscle and breast cells, and was amplified or overexpressed in pancreatic cancer, which promoted the development of tumour through bioinformatics. Therefore, it is predicted that ZNF146 gene affects the proliferation of muscle cells, and then affects the growth and development of cattle. Furthermore, CNV genotyping of ZNF146 gene was three types (deletion type, normal type and duplication type) by Real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR (qPCR). The association analysis results showed that ZNF146-CNV was significantly correlated with rump length of Qinchuan cattle, hucklebone width of Jiaxian red cattle and heart girth of Yunling cattle. From the above results, ZNF146-CNV had a significant effect on growth traits, which provided an important candidate molecular marker for growth and development of Chinese cattle.
The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.
This study aimed to research risk factors of hearing loss among neonates in the neonatal intensive care unit.
Method
Hearing screening tests were performed on 572 neonates in the neonatal intensive care unit. Those who failed screening tests were referred for diagnostic tests.
Results
The pass rates for automated auditory brainstem response, distortion product otoacoustic emission and acoustic impedance tests at first hearing screening were 69.93 per cent, 70.02 per cent and 92.92 per cent for 1144 ears. Failure in the first screening correlated with preterm birth, very low birth weight, revised advanced maternal age, neonatal hyperbilirubinaemia and Activity, Pulse, Grimace, Appearance, Respiration score less than 8. Thirty cases failed in diagnostic hearing tests for brainstem auditory evoked potentials, 28 failed in otoacoustic emissions and 33 failed in acoustic impedance, which correlated with preterm birth, very low birth weight, twins, advanced maternal age and revised advanced maternal age.
Conclusion
Abnormalities in the hearing levels of most neonates who needed hearing retests were completely or partially reversible. Preterm birth, very low birth weight, twins and advanced maternal age are potential risk factors for hearing impairment.
Pneumatic launch systems for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), including mechanical and pneumatic systems, are complex and non-linear. They are subjected to system parameters during launch, which leads to difficulty in engineering research analysis. For example, the mismatch between the UAV parameters and the parameter design indices of the launch system as well as the unclear design indices of the launching speed and overload of UAVs have a great impact on launch safety. Considering this situation, some studies are presented in this paper. Taking the pneumatic launch system as a research object, a pneumatic launcher dynamic simulation model is built based on co-simulation considering the coupling characteristics of the mechanical structure and transmission system. Its accuracy was verified by laboratory test results. Based on this model, the paper shows the effects of the key parameters, including the mass of the UAV, cylinder volume, pressure and moment of inertia of the pulley block, on the performance of the dynamic characteristics of the launch process. Then, a method for matching the parameter characteristics between the UAV and launch system based on batch simulation is proposed. The set of matching parameter values of the UAV and launch system that satisfy the launch take-off safety criteria are calculated. Finally, the influence of the system parameters of the launch process on the launch performance was analysed in detail, and the design optimised. Meaningful conclusions were obtained. The analysis method and its results can provide a reference for engineering and theoretical research and development of pneumatic launch systems.
To investigate the influences of dietary riboflavin (RF) addition on nutrient digestion and rumen fermentation, eight rumen cannulated Holstein bulls were randomly allocated into four treatments in a repeated 4 × 4 Latin square design. Daily addition level of RF for each bull in control, low RF, medium RF and high RF was 0, 300, 600 and 900 mg, respectively. Increasing the addition level of RF, DM intake was not affected, average daily gain tended to be increased linearly and feed conversion ratio decreased linearly. Total tract digestibilities of DM, organic matter, crude protein (CP) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) increased linearly. Rumen pH decreased quadratically, and total volatile fatty acids (VFA) increased quadratically. Acetate molar percentage and acetate:propionate ratio increased linearly, but propionate molar percentage and ammonia-N content decreased linearly. Rumen effective degradability of DM increased linearly, NDF increased quadratically but CP was unaltered. Activity of cellulase and populations of total bacteria, protozoa, fungi, dominant cellulolytic bacteria, Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus increased linearly. Linear increase was observed for urinary total purine derivatives excretion. The data suggested that dietary RF addition was essential for rumen microbial growth, and no further increase in performance and rumen total VFA concentration was observed when increasing RF level from 600 to 900 mg/d in dairy bulls.
An acute gastroenteritis (AGE) outbreak caused by a norovirus occurred at a hospital in Shanghai, China, was studied for molecular epidemiology, host susceptibility and serological roles. Rectal and environmental swabs, paired serum samples and saliva specimens were collected. Pathogens were detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing. Histo-blood group antigens (HBGA) phenotypes of saliva samples and their binding to norovirus protruding proteins were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The HBGA-binding interfaces and the surrounding region were analysed by the MegAlign program of DNAstar 7.1. Twenty-seven individuals in two care units were attacked with AGE at attack rates of 9.02 and 11.68%. Eighteen (78.2%) symptomatic and five (38.4%) asymptomatic individuals were GII.6/b norovirus positive. Saliva-based HBGA phenotyping showed that all symptomatic and asymptomatic cases belonged to A, B, AB or O secretors. Only four (16.7%) out of the 24 tested serum samples showed low blockade activity against HBGA-norovirus binding at the acute phase, whereas 11 (45.8%) samples at the convalescence stage showed seroconversion of such blockade. Specific blockade antibody in the population played an essential role in this norovirus epidemic. A wide HBGA-binding spectrum of GII.6 supports a need for continuous health attention and surveillance in different settings.
This study aimed to evaluate the benefits of betahistine or vestibular rehabilitation (Tetrax biofeedback) on the quality of life and fall risk in patients with Ménière's disease.
Methods
Sixty-six patients with Ménière's disease were randomly divided into three groups: betahistine, Tetrax and control groups. Patients’ Dizziness Handicap Index and Tetrax fall index scores were obtained before and after treatment.
Results
Patients in the betahistine and Tetrax groups showed significant improvements in Dizziness Handicap Index and fall index scores after treatment versus before treatment (p < 0.05). The improvements in the Tetrax group were significantly greater than those in the betahistine group (p < 0.05).
Conclusions
Betahistine and vestibular rehabilitation (Tetrax biofeedback) improve the quality of life and reduce the risk of falling in patients with Ménière's disease. Vestibular rehabilitation (Tetrax biofeedback) is an effective management method for Ménière's disease.
Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.
A disruption database characterizing the current quench of disruptions with ITER-like tungsten divertor has been developed on EAST. It provides a large number of plasma parameters describing the predisruptive plasma, current quench time, eddy current, and mitigation by massive impurity injection, which shows that the current quench time strongly depends on magnetic energy and post-disruption electron temperature. Further, the energy balance and magnetic energy dissipation during the current quench phase has been well analysed. Magnetic energy is also demonstrated to be dissipated mainly by ohmic reheating and inductive coupling, and both of the two channels have great effects on current quench time. Also, massive gas injection is an efficient method to speed up the current quench and increase the fraction of impurity radiation.
Bordetella bronchiseptica is a potential zoonotic pathogen, which mainly causes respiratory diseases in humans and a variety of animal species. B. bronchiseptica is one of the important pathogens isolated from rabbits in Fujian Province. However, the knowledge of the epidemiology and characteristics of the B. bronchiseptica in rabbits in Fujian Province is largely unknown. In this study, 219 B. bronchiseptica isolates recovered from lung samples of dead rabbits with respiratory diseases in Fujian Province were characterised by multi-locus sequencing typing, screening virulence genes and testing antimicrobial susceptibility. The results showed that the 219 isolates were typed into 11 sequence types (STs) including five known STs (ST6, ST10, ST12, ST14 and ST33) and six new STs (ST88, ST89, ST90, ST91, ST92 and ST93) and the ST33 (30.14%, 66/219), ST14 (26.94%, 59/219) and ST12 (16.44%, 36/219) were the three most prevalent STs. Surprisingly, all the 219 isolates carried the five virulence genes (fhaB, prn, cyaA, dnt and bteA) in the polymerase chain reaction screening. Moreover, the isolates were resistant to cefixime, ceftizoxime, cefatriaxone and ampicillin at rates of 33.33%, 31.05%, 11.87% and 3.20%, respectively. This study showed the genetic diversity of B. bronchiseptica in rabbits in Fujian Province, and the colonisation of the human-associated ST12 strain in rabbits in Fujian Province. The results might be useful for monitoring the epidemic strains, developing preventive methods and preventing the transmission of epidemic strains from rabbits to humans.
The Eating Assessment in Toddlers FFQ (EAT FFQ) has been shown to have good reliability and comparative validity for ranking nutrient intakes in young children. With the addition of food items (n 4), we aimed to re-assess the validity of the EAT FFQ and estimate calibration factors in a sub-sample of children (n 97) participating in the Growing Up Milk – Lite (GUMLi) randomised control trial (2015–2017). Participants completed the ninety-nine-item GUMLi EAT FFQ and record-assisted 24-h recalls (24HR) on two occasions. Energy and nutrient intakes were assessed at months 9 and 12 post-randomisation and calibration factors calculated to determine predicted estimates from the GUMLi EAT FFQ. Validity was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficients, weighted kappa (κ) and exact quartile categorisation. Calibration was calculated using linear regression models on 24HR, adjusted for sex and treatment group. Nutrient intakes were significantly correlated between the GUMLi EAT FFQ and 24HR at both time points. Energy-adjusted, de-attenuated Pearson correlations ranged from 0·3 (fibre) to 0·8 (Fe) at 9 months and from 0·3 (Ca) to 0·7 (Fe) at 12 months. Weighted κ for the quartiles ranged from 0·2 (Zn) to 0·6 (Fe) at 9 months and from 0·1 (total fat) to 0·5 (Fe) at 12 months. Exact agreement ranged from 30 to 74 %. Calibration factors predicted up to 56 % of the variation in the 24HR at 9 months and 44 % at 12 months. The GUMLi EAT FFQ remained a useful tool for ranking nutrient intakes with similar estimated validity compared with other FFQ used in children under 2 years.
Guanidinoacetic acid (GAA) can improve the growth performance of bulls. This study investigated the influences of GAA addition on growth, nutrient digestion, ruminal fermentation and serum metabolites in bulls. Forty-eight Angus bulls were randomly allocated to experimental treatments, that is, control, low-GAA (LGAA), medium-GAA (MGAA) and high-GAA (HGAA), with GAA supplementation at 0, 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 g/kg DM, respectively. Bulls were fed a basal diet containing 500 g/kg DM concentrate and 500 g/kg DM roughage. The experimental period was 104 days, with 14 days for adaptation and 90 days for data collection. Bulls in the MGAA and HGAA groups had higher DM intake and average daily gain than bulls in the LGAA and control groups. The feed conversion ratio was lowest in MGAA and highest in the control. Bulls receiving 0.9 g/kg DM GAA addition had higher digestibility of DM, organic matter, NDF and ADF than bulls in other groups. The digestibility of CP was higher for HGAA than for LGAA and control. The ruminal pH was lower for MGAA, and the total volatile fatty acid concentration was greater for MGAA and HGAA than for the control. The acetate proportion and acetate-to-propionate ratio were lower for MGAA than for LGAA and control. The propionate proportion was higher for MGAA than for control. Bulls receiving GAA addition showed decreased ruminal ammonia N. Bulls in MGAA and HGAA had higher cellobiase, pectinase and protease activities and Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens, Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus populations than bulls in LGAA and control. However, the total protozoan population was lower for MGAA and HGAA than for LGAA and control. The total bacterial and Ruminococcus flavefaciens populations increased with GAA addition. The blood level of creatine was higher for HGAA, and the activity of l-arginine glycine amidine transferase was lower for MGAA and HGAA, than for control. The blood activity of guanidine acetate N-methyltransferase and the level of folate decreased in the GAA addition groups. The results indicated that dietary addition of 0.6 or 0.9 g/kg DM GAA improved growth performance, nutrient digestion and ruminal fermentation in bulls.
Reducing dietary CP content is an effective approach to reduce animal nitrogen excretion and save protein feed resources. However, it is not clear how reducing dietary CP content affects the nutrient digestion and absorption in the gut of ruminants, therefore it is difficult to accurately determine how much reduction in dietary CP content is appropriate. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of reduced dietary CP content on N balance, intestinal nutrient digestion and absorption, and rumen microbiota in growing goats. To determine N balance, 18 growing wether goats (25.0 ± 0.5 kg) were randomly assigned to one of three diets: 13.0% (control), 11.5% and 10.0% CP. Another 18 growing wether goats (25.0 ± 0.5 kg) were surgically fitted with ruminal, proximate duodenal, and terminal ileal fistulae and were randomly assigned to one of the three diets to investigate intestinal amino acid (AA) absorption and rumen microbiota. The results showed that fecal and urinary N excretion of goats fed diets containing 11.5% and 10.0% CP were lower than those of goats fed the control diet (P < 0.05). When compared with goats fed the control diet, N retention was decreased and apparent N digestibility in the entire gastrointestinal tract was increased in goats fed the 10% CP diet (P < 0.05). When compared with goats fed the control diet, the duodenal flow of lysine, tryptophan and phenylalanine was decreased in goats fed the 11.5% CP diet (P < 0.05) and that of lysine, methionine, tryptophan, phenylalanine, leucine, glutamic acid, tyrosine, essential AAs (EAAs) and total AAs (TAAs) was decreased in goats fed the 10.0% CP diet (P < 0.05). When compared with goats fed the control diet, the apparent absorption of TAAs in the small intestine was increased in goats fed the 11.5% CP diet (P < 0.05) and that of isoleucine, serine, cysteine, EAAs, non-essential AAs, and TAAs in the small intestine was increased in goats fed the 10.0% CP diet (P < 0.05). When compared with goats fed the control diet, the relative richness of Bacteroidetes and Fibrobacteres was increased and that of Proteobacteria and Synergistetes was decreased in the rumen of goats fed a diet with 10.0% CP. In conclusion, reducing dietary CP content reduced N excretion and increased nutrient utilization by improving rumen fermentation, enhancing nutrient digestion and absorption, and altering rumen microbiota in growing goats.
There seems to be geographical differences in decisions about breast conserving surgery (BCS) in breast cancer patients. This study was to evaluate patients’ attitude to BCS and to assess the factors affecting cancer practice in West China.
Methods:
A structured questionnaire was distributed to 184 patients, eliciting information about the patients’ characteristics, occupation, education, family life, recognition of illness, knowledge about BCS, the main means of gaining surgery information, selecting surgery approaches, preferences to breast reservation.
Results:
In all, 163 patients completed the questionnaire. The results indicated that only 7.4% of patients received BCS and 23% of the remaining patients desired to have BCS and the affecting factors were significantly associated with their family life, recognition of illness and the main means of gaining surgery information (P < 0.05). No associations were between BCS selecting and the other variables studied. The most frequent reasons for selecting BCS were keeping the female shape and improving quality of life (71%), the second most were postoperative recovery, minimal influence of physical function (47%) and patients’ knowledge about BCS (42%). The most frequent reasons for not selecting BCS were uncertainty about BCS results and worry about recurrence (81%), the second most was the elderly age unnecessary for BCS (40%).
Conclusions:
The findings indicate that breast cancer patients in West China do not take BCS as the first choice as the best treatment method. It is warranted that further study of more patients, attitude of patients’ partners and physicians to BCS.
White matter abnormalities have been repeatedly reported in both schizophrenia and bipolar disorder (BD) diseases from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) studies respectively, while the empirical evidences about the diagnostic specificity of white matter abnormalities in these disorders are still limited.
Objectives
25 patients with paranoid schizophrenia and 18 patients with bipolar mania were recruited from the in-patient unit of the Mental Health Centre, West China Hospital, China.
Patients were diagnosed according to the criteria of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-Version IV (DSM- IV). 30 healthy controls were recruited from the community by means of leaflets distributed throughout Chengdu city.
Aims
This study sought to investigate the alterations in fractional anisotropy (FA) in white matter throughout the entire brain of patients from Chengdu, China with paranoid schizophrenia and bipolar mania.
Methods
Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) was used to assess white matter integrity in patients with paranoid schizophrenia and bipolar mania, as well as in normal controls. The differences in FA were measured by use of voxel-based analysis.
Results
Reduced FA was found in the left posterior corona radiate (PCR) in patients with bipolar mania and paranoid schizophrenia compared to the controls. Patients with bipolar mania also showed a significant reduction in FA in right posterior corona radiate and in right anterior thalamic radiation (ATR).
Conclusions
Common abnormalities in the left PCR might imply an overlap in white matter pathology of both diseases and might be related to the shared risk factors for both disorders.
Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is the most common postoperative complication after gynecological laparoscopic surgery. It is unknown whether the occurrence of PONV is associated with the preoperative psychological status.
Objectives:
To explore the effects of preoperative psychological status on the incidence of PONV following gynecological laparoscopic surgery.
Aims:
To analyze the possible risk factors in order to prevent and treat PONV after gynecological laparoscopic surgery.
Methods:
101 cases patients who underwent gynecological laparoscopic surgery were enrolled. Self-rating anxiety scale (SAS) and self-rating depression scale (SDS) were used to assess the preoperative psychological state. Visual analog scale nausea (NVAS) was used to evaluate the occurrence of PONY within the postoperative 24 hours.
Results:
101 patients completed NVAS and 72 patients completed SAS and SDS. The incidence of PONV was 45.5%. The standard score of SAS (49.14±8.01) in PONV group was significantly higher than that in Non-PONV group (44.54±7.58) t=2.505, P < 0.05. The ratio of preoperative anxiety patients(SAS≥50) in PONV group(57%) was higher than that in Non-PONV group (30%) (χ2=5.513, P < 0.05). It showed that the occurrence of PONV was positively correlated with preoperative anxiety (r=0.277, P < 0.05). There was no difference in the scores of SDS between two groups. No correlation was found between PONV and preoperative depression.
Conclusions:
Higher level of anxiety before surgery may increase the risk of PONV. The patients undergoing gynecological laparoscopic surgery should reduce the level of anxiety with appropriate psychological counseling or prophylactic anti-anxiety drugs.
The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the survival of hospitalised human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) patients (hospitalised person living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHAs)). Hospitalised PLWHAs (n = 3724) between January 2012 and December 2014 were enrolled in the training cohort. HIV-infected inpatients (n = 1987) admitted in 2015 were included as the external-validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used to perform data dimension reduction and select the optimal predictors. The nomogram incorporated 11 independent predictors, including occupation, antiretroviral therapy, pneumonia, tuberculosis, Talaromyces marneffei, hypertension, septicemia, anaemia, respiratory failure, hypoproteinemia and electrolyte disturbances. The Likelihood χ2 statistic of the model was 516.30 (P = 0.000). Integrated Brier Score was 0.076 and Brier scores of the nomogram at the 10-day and 20-day time points were 0.046 and 0.071, respectively. The area under the curves for receiver operating characteristic were 0.819 and 0.828, and precision-recall curves were 0.242 and 0.378 at two time points. Calibration plots and decision curve analysis in the two sets showed good performance and a high net benefit of nomogram. In conclusion, the nomogram developed in the current study has relatively high calibration and is clinically useful. It provides a convenient and useful tool for timely clinical decision-making and the risk management of hospitalised PLWHAs.