Thwaites Glacier (TG) plays an important role in future sea-level rise (SLR) contribution from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent observations show that TG is losing mass, and its grounding zone is retreating. Previous modeling has produced a wide range of results concerning whether, when, and how rapidly further retreat will occur under continued warming. These differences arise at least in part from ill-constrained processes, including friction from the bed, and future atmosphere and ocean forcing affecting ice-shelf and grounding-zone buttressing. Here, we apply the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) with a range of specifications of basal sliding behavior in response to varying ocean forcing. We find that basin-wide bed character strongly affects TG's response to sub-shelf melt by modulating how changes in driving stress are balanced by the bed as the glacier responds to external forcing. Resulting differences in dynamic thinning patterns alter modeled grounding-line retreat across Thwaites' catchment, affecting both modeled rates and magnitudes of SLR contribution from this critical sector of the ice sheet. Bed character introduces large uncertainties in projections of TG under equal external forcing, pointing to this as a crucial constraint needed in predictive models of West Antarctica.

Marine-terminating glaciers cover more than one-fourth of the total glacierized area in the Northern Hemisphere outside the Greenland ice sheet. It is therefore crucial to ensure an adequate representation of these glaciers when projecting large-scale glacier mass changes. We investigate how the introduction of marine frontal processes in the modeling chain influences the results of mass change projections, compared to projections neglecting such processes. We find that including frontal processes reduces the projected glacier mass loss, since incorporating frontal ablation in the model's mass-balance calibration results in a decrease in marine-terminating glaciers’ sensitivity to atmospheric temperatures. We also find that retrograde bed slopes lead to increased frontal ablation as the atmosphere warms, while frontal ablation decreases if bed slopes are prograde. These opposing effects have the potential to partly cancel each other when considering large glacier ensembles. Although we do not account for potential future changes in oceanic climate yet, any effect of these would be moderated by around half of today's marine-terminating glaciers becoming land-terminating in the course of the 21st century. While we find a significant influence of ice flow parameters on our results, boundary conditions remain the largest source of uncertainty in our projections.

In the evening of 24 December 1789, 2100 km southeast of Cape Town and after encountering three icebergs, the HMS Guardian under Captain Edward Riou collided with the submerged foot of a large iceberg. Despite severe damage to the ship and its abandonment by many of its crew and passengers, Riou sailed the hulk back to Cape Town, arriving on 22 February 1790. From present-day research and field studies, the formation of the foot in the collision is consistent with the above-freezing seawater temperatures inferred from Riou's commentary. Further, the observed 60 m iceberg height suggests that it calved from the Filchner Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea. Comparison of the positions of Riou's icebergs with historic sightings, satellite observations and iceberg drift and fracture models also shows that they originated in the Weddell Sea and that their likelihood of occurrence in the collision region is small.

This study provides the first comprehensive reconstruction of the dynamics of Iceberg Glacier, located on western Axel Heiberg Island, and reveals detailed observations of a complete surge for the first time in the Canadian Arctic. Historical aerial photographs, declassified intelligence satellite photographs, optical satellite imagery and synthetic aperture radar data were used to quantify changes in terminus position, ice velocity and glacier thickness since the 1950s. A surge initiated at the terminus in 1981 and terminated in 2003, suggesting a 22-year active phase. High surface velocities, reaching ~2300 m a−1 in 1991, were accompanied by a maximum terminus advance of >7 km and a large transfer of mass down-glacier, causing significant median trunk-wide surface elevation changes attaining >3 ± 1 m a−1. We suggest that the retreat from a pinning point, flotation of the terminus, the removal of sea-ice from the ice front, and an increase in subglacial meltwater availability from relatively high air temperatures in 1981 likely contributed to surge initiation. The ensuing quiescent period has seen a continual decrease in surface flow rates to an average centreline velocity of 11.5 m a−1 in 2020–21, a gradual steepening of the glacier surface and a > 2.5 km terminus retreat.

Floating ice shelves that fringe the coast of Antarctica resist the flow of grounded ice into the ocean. One of the key factors governing the amount of flow resistance an ice shelf provides is the rigidity (related to viscosity) of the ice that constitutes it. Ice rigidity is highly heterogeneous and must be calibrated from spatially continuous surface observations assimilated into an ice-flow model. Realistic uncertainties in calibrated rigidity values are needed to quantify uncertainties in ice sheet and sea-level forecasts. Here, we present a physics-informed machine learning framework for inferring the full probability distribution of rigidity values for a given ice shelf, conditioned on ice surface velocity and thickness fields derived from remote-sensing data. We employ variational inference to jointly train neural networks and a variational Gaussian Process to reconstruct surface observations, rigidity values and uncertainties. Applying the framework to synthetic and large ice shelves in Antarctica demonstrates that rigidity is well-constrained where ice deformation is measurable within the noise level of the observations. Further reduction in uncertainties can be achieved by complementing variational inference with conventional inversion methods. Our results demonstrate a path forward for continuously updated calibrations of ice flow parameters from remote-sensing observations.

The Antarctic Peninsula's widespread glacier retreat and ice shelf collapse have been attributed to atmospheric and oceanic warming. Following the initial post-collapse period of retreat, several former tributary glaciers of the Larsen A and B ice shelves have been slowly re-advancing for more than a decade. Here, we use a flowline model of Crane Glacier to gauge the sensitivity of former tributary glaciers to future climate change following this period of long-term dynamic adjustment. The glacier's long-term geometry and speed changes are similar to those of other former Larsen A and B tributaries, suggesting that Crane Glacier is a reasonable representation of regional dynamics. For the unperturbed climate simulations, discharge remains nearly unchanged in 2018–2100, indicating that dynamic readjustment to shelf collapse took ~15 years. Despite large uncertainties in Crane Glacier's past and future climate forcing, a wide range of future climate scenarios leads to a relatively modest range in grounding line discharge (0.8–1.5 Gt a−1) by 2100. Based on the model results for Crane, we infer that although former ice shelf tributaries may readvance following collapse, similar to the tidewater glacier cycle, their dynamic response to future climate perturbations should be less than their response to ice shelf collapse.

Theory and observation show that glacier-flow regimes characterized by high basal slip enhance the projection of topographic detail to the surface, motivating this investigation into the efficacy of using glacier surges to improve bed estimation. Here we adapt a Bayesian inversion scheme and apply it to real and synthetic data as a proof of concept. Synthetic tests show a reduction in mean RMSE between true and inferred beds by more than half, and an increase in the mean correlation coefficient of ~0.5, when data from slip- versus deformation-dominated regimes are used. Multi-epoch inversions, which partition slip- and deformation-dominated regimes, are shown to outperform inversions that average over these flow regimes thereby squandering information. Tests with real data from a surging glacier in Yukon, Canada, corroborate these results, while highlighting the challenges of limited or inconsistent data. With the growing torrent of satellite-based observations, fast-flow events such as glacier surges offer potential to improve bed estimation for some of the world's most dynamic glaciers.

The dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet are affected by surface meltwater reaching the base of the ice, altering ice contact with the bedrock. Lack of understanding of this evolution hampers the ability to predict the effects of increasing temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance. Here we present a unique high-resolution study of ice velocity response to surface melting based on data from a COSMO-SkyMed satellite campaign over Upernavik Isstrøm (Northwest Greenland) for two months around the end of the 2014 melt season. We show that the velocity variations, due to both short-term (days) and seasonal variations in surface melt rates, are increasing in relative strength farther from the glacier terminus. Furthermore, we observe how ice dynamic response to frontal retreat, reaching several kilometres inland, can obscure the meltwater-induced velocity change close to the terminus. Future studies should consider the flow velocity dependence on the distance to the terminus, and local geometry, to distinguish subglacial hydrologic system changes from frontal processes and local basal conditions.

Links between proglacial lakes and glacier dynamics are poorly understood but are necessary to predict how mountain glaciers will react to a warmer, wetter climate, where such lakes are expected to increase both in number and volume. Here, we examine a long-term (~120 year) record of terminus retreat, thinning and surface velocities from in-situ and remote sensing observations at the terminus of Kaskawulsh Glacier, Yukon, Canada, and determine the impact of a local proglacial hydrological reorganisation on glacier dynamics. After an initial deceleration during the late 1990s, terminus velocities increased at a rate of 3 m a−2 from 2000–12, while proglacial Slims Lake area increased simultaneously. The rapid drainage of the lake in May 2016 substantially altered the velocity profile, decreasing annual velocities by 48% within 3 km of the terminus between 2015 and 2021, at an average rate of ~ 12.5 m a−2. A key cause of the rapid drop in glacier motion was a reduction in flotation of the lower part of the glacier terminus after lake drainage. This has important implications for glacier dynamics and provides one of the first assessments of the impacts of a rapid proglacial lake drainage event on local terminus velocities.

The magnitude and azimuth of horizontal ice flow at Camp Century, Greenland have been measured several times since 1963. Here, we provide a further two independent measurements over the 2017–21 period. Our consensus estimate of horizontal ice flow from four independent satellite-positioning solutions is 3.65 ± 0.13 m a−1 at an azimuth of 236 ± 2°. A portion of the small, but significant, differences in ice velocity and azimuth reported between studies likely results from spatial gradients in ice flow. This highlights the importance of restricting inter-study comparisons of ice flow estimates to measurements surveyed within a horizontal distance of one ice thickness from each other. We suggest that ice flow at Camp Century is stable on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. The airborne and satellite laser altimetry record indicates an ice thickening trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 cm a−1 since 1994. This thickening trend is qualitatively consistent with previously inferred ongoing millennial-scale ice thickening at Camp Century. The ice flow divide immediately north of Camp Century may now be migrating southward, although the reasons for this divide migration are poorly understood. The Camp Century flowlines presently terminate in the vicinity of Innaqqissorsuup Oqquani Sermeq (Gade Gletsjer) on the Melville Bay coast.

Reliable, long-term records of glacier mass change are invaluable to the glaciological and climate-change communities and used to assess the importance of glacier wastage on streamflow. Here we evaluate the in-situ observations of glacier mass change for Place (1982–2020) and Peyto glaciers (1983–2020) in western Canada. We use geodetic mass balance to calibrate a physically-based mass-balance model coupled with an ice dynamics routine. We find large discrepancies between the glaciological and geodetic records for the periods 1987–1993 (Place) and 2001–2006 (Peyto). Over the period of observations, the exclusion of ice dynamics in the model increased simulated cumulative mass change by ~10.6 (24%) and 7.1 (21%) m w.e. for Place and Peyto glacier, respectively. Cumulative mass loss using geodetic, modelled and glaciological approaches are respectively − 30.5 ± 4.5, − 32.0 ± 3.6, − 29.7 ± 3.6 m w.e. for Peyto Glacier (1982–2017) and − 45.9 ± 5.2, − 43.1 ± 3.1, − 38.4 ± 5.1 m w.e. for Place Glacier (1981–2019). Based on discrepancies noted in the mass-balance records for certain decades (e.g. 1990s), we caution the community if these data are to be used for hydrological model development.

Ice streams are warmed by shear strain, both vertical shear near the bed and lateral shear at the margins. Warm ice deforms more easily, establishing a positive feedback loop in an ice stream where fast flow leads to warm ice and then to even faster flow. Here, we use radar attenuation measurements to show that the Siple Coast ice streams are colder than previously thought, which we hypothesize is due to along-flow advection of cold ice from upstream. We interpret the attenuation results within the context of previous ice-temperature measurements from nearby sites where hot-water boreholes were drilled. These in-situ temperatures are notably colder than model predictions, both in the ice streams and in an ice-stream shear margin. We then model ice temperature using a 1.5-dimensional numerical model which includes a parameterization for along-flow advection. Compared to analytical solutions, we find depth-averaged temperatures that are colder by 0.7°C in the Bindschadler Ice Stream, 2.7°C in the Kamb Ice Stream and 6.2–8.2°C in the Dragon Shear Margin of Whillans Ice Stream, closer to the borehole measurements at all locations. Modelled cooling corresponds to shear-margin thermal strengthening by 3–3.5 times compared to the warm-ice case, which must be compensated by some other weakening mechanism such as material damage or ice-crystal fabric anisotropy.

In this study, we investigate the differences between two transient, three-dimensional, thermomechanically coupled ice-sheet models, namely, a first-order approximation model (FOM) and a ‘full’ Stokes ice-sheet model (FSM) under the same numerical framework. For all numerical experiments, we take the FSM outputs as the reference values and calculate the mean relative errors in the velocity and temperature fields for the FOM over 100 years. Four different boundary conditions (ice slope, geothermal heat flux, basal topography and basal sliding) are tested, and by changing these parameters, we verify the thermomechanical behavior of the FOM and discover that the velocity and temperature biases of the FOM generally increase with increases in the ice slope, geothermal heat flux, undulation amplitude of the ice base, and with the existence of basal sliding. In addition, the model difference between the FOM and FSM may accumulate over time, and the spatial distribution patterns of the relative velocity and temperature errors are in good agreement.

The interior of an ice sheet consists of layers of accumulated snow, which contain important information on accumulation and ice dynamics that are imprinted on layer shapes over time. This work describes how changes in accumulation influence the stratigraphy of an ice sheet. The thickness of each layer at present day depends both on accumulation and on the effect of dynamic thinning after its deposition. An isochronal numerical model is used to simulate the evolution of a 2-D, idealized ice sheet while explicitly representing the layers. A series of simulations was carried out to quantify the changes that anomalous accumulation at different locations and times has on the stratigraphy. These simulations form the basis of a linear response function. A second set of simulations with more sustained changes in accumulation is then used to describe large-scale and long-term impacts on the layering of the ice sheet as well as to test the quality of the linear approximation. The aim is to examine whether long-term effects can be extrapolated from small differential changes. The result confirms a certain degree of linearity between changes in accumulation and layer thickness that may be exploited for future inverse modeling applications.

Understanding the dynamic behaviour of ice shelves, specifically the controls on their ability to buttress the flow of ice into the ocean, is critical for predicting future ice-sheet contributions to sea level rise. Many large ice shelves, which are predominantly composed of meteoric ice, have a basal layer of marine ice (formed from accumulated platelets at the ice–ocean interface), comprising up to 40% of their thickness locally. Differences in temperature, chemistry and microstructure between marine and meteoric ice mean the rheological properties of the ice vary throughout the ice shelf. These differences are not explicitly accounted for in ice-sheet modelling applications, and may have an important influence on ice shelf dynamics. We tested the sensitivity of a model of an idealised ice shelf to variations in temperature distribution and flow enhancement, and found that incorporating a realistic thermal profile (where the marine ice layer is isothermal) had an order of magnitude greater effect on ice mass flux and thinning than incorporating the mechanical properties of the marine ice. The presence of marine ice at the ice shelf base has the potential to significantly increase deviatoric stresses at the surface and ice mass flux across the front of an ice shelf.

Global glacier mass balance decreased rapidly over the last two decades, exceeding mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In Greenland, peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) cover only ~5% of Greenland's area but contributed ~20% of the island's ice mass loss between 2000 and 2018. Although Greenland GIC mass loss due to surface meltwater runoff has been estimated using atmospheric models, mass lost to changes in ice discharge into oceans (i.e., dynamic mass loss) remains unquantified. We use the flux gate method to estimate discharge from Greenland's 585 marine-terminating peripheral glaciers between 1985 and 2018, and compute dynamic mass loss as the discharge anomaly relative to the 1985–98 period. Greenland GICs discharged between 2.94 ± 0.23 and 4.03 ± 0.23 Gt a−1 from 1985 to 1998, depending on the gap-filling method, and abruptly increased to 5.10 ± 0.21 Gt a−1 from 1999 to 2018. The resultant ~1–2 Gt a−1 dynamic mass loss was driven by synchronous widespread acceleration around Greenland. The mass loss came predominantly from the southeast region, which contains 39% of the glaciers. Although changes in discharge over time were small relative to surface mass-balance changes, our speed and discharge time series suggest these glaciers may quickly accelerate in response to changes in climate.

Data assimilation in high-order ice flow modeling is a challenging and computationally costly task, yet crucial to find ice thickness and ice flow parameter distributions that are consistent with ice flow mechanics and mass balance while best matching observations. Failing to find these distributions that are required as initial conditions leads to a disequilibrium between mass balance and ice flow, resulting in nonphysical transient effects in the prognostic model. Here we tackle this problem by inverting an emulator of the Stokes ice flow model based on deep learning. By substituting the ice flow equations using a convolutional neural network emulator, we simplify, make more robust and dramatically speed up the solving of the underlying optimization problem thanks to automatic differentiation, stochastic gradient methods and implementation of graphics processing unit (GPU). We demonstrate this process by simultaneously inferring the ice thickness distribution, ice flow parametrization and ice surface of ten of the largest glaciers in Switzerland. As a result, we obtain a high degree of assimilation while guaranteeing an equilibrium between mass-balance and ice flow mechanics. The code runs very efficiently (optimizing one large-size glacier at 100 m takes < 1 min on a laptop) while it is open-source and publicly available.

We present spatially distributed seasonal and annual surface mass balances of Wolverine Glacier, Alaska, from 2016 to 2020. Our approach accounts for the effects of ice emergence and firn compaction on surface elevation changes to resolve the spatial patterns in mass balance at 10 m scale. We present and compare three methods for estimating emergence velocities. Firn compaction was constrained by optimizing a firn model to fit three firn cores. Distributed mass balances showed good agreement with mass-balance stakes (RMSE = 0.67 m w.e., r = 0.99, n = 41) and ground-penetrating radar surveys (RMSE = 0.36 m w.e., r = 0.85, n = 9024). Fundamental differences in the distributions of seasonal balances highlight the importance of disparate physical processes, with anomalously high ablation rates observed in icefalls. Winter balances were found to be positively skewed when controlling for elevation, while summer and annual balances were negatively skewed. We show that only a small percent of the glacier surface represents ideal locations for mass-balance stake placement. Importantly, no suitable areas are found near the terminus or in elevation bands dominated by icefalls. These findings offer explanations for the often-needed geodetic calibrations of glaciological time series.

Mass loss from ice shelves is a strong control on grounding-line dynamics. Here we investigate how calving and submarine melt parameterizations affect steady-state grounding-line positions and their stability. Our results indicate that different calving laws with the same melt parameterization result in more diverse steady-state ice-sheet configurations than different melt parameterizations with the same calving law. We show that the backstress at the grounding line depends on the integrated ice-shelf mass flux. Consequently, ice shelves are most sensitive to high melt rates in the vicinity of their grounding lines. For the same shelf-averaged melt rates, different melt parameterizations can lead to very different ice-shelf configurations and grounding-line positions. If the melt rate depends on the slope of the ice-shelf draft, then the positive feedback between increased melting and steepening of the slope can lead to singular melt rates at the ice-shelf front, producing an apparent lower limit of the shelf front thickness as the ice thickness vanishes over a small boundary layer. Our results illustrate that the evolution of marine ice sheets is highly dependent on ice-shelf mass loss mechanisms, and that existing parameterizations can lead to a wide range of modelled grounding-line behaviours.

Increasing ice flux from glaciers retreating over deepening (retrograde) bed topography has been implicated in the recent acceleration of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We show in observations that some glaciers have remained at peaks in bed topography without retreating despite enduring significant changes in climate. Observations also indicate that some glaciers which persist at bed peaks undergo sudden retreat years or decades after the onset of local ocean or atmospheric warming. Using model simulations, we show that persistence of a glacier at a bed peak is caused by ice slowing as it flows up a reverse-sloping bed to the peak. Persistence at bed peaks may lead to two very different future behaviors for a glacier: one where it persists at a bed peak indefinitely, and another where it retreats from the bed peak after potentially long delays following climate forcing. However, it is nearly impossible to distinguish which of these two future behaviors will occur from current observations. We conclude that inferring glacier stability from observations of persistence obscures our true commitment to future sea-level rise under climate change. We recommend that further research is needed on seemingly stable glaciers to determine their likely future.