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Forecasting human capital of EU member countries accounting for sociocultural determinants

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 August 2019

Guillaume Marois Open the ORCID record for Guillaume Marois [Opens in a new window] ,
Patrick Sabourin  and
Alain Bélanger
Guillaume Marois*
Affiliation:
World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Patrick Sabourin
Affiliation:
World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Alain Bélanger
Affiliation:
Centre Urbanisation Culture Société, Institut national de la recherche scientifique, 385 rue Sherbrooke Est, Montréal, CanadaH2X 1E3
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: marois@iiasa.ac.at
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Abstract

Inclusion of additional dimensions to population projections can lead to an improvement in the overall quality of the projections and to an enhanced analytical potential of derived projections such as literacy skills and labor force participation. This paper describes the modeling of educational attainment of a microsimulation projection model of the European Union countries. Using ordered logistic regressions on five waves of the European Social Survey, we estimate the impact of mother's education and other sociocultural characteristics on educational attainment and implement them into the microsimulation model. Results of the different projection scenarios are contrasted to understand how the education of the mother and sociocultural variables may affect projection outcomes. We show that a change in the impact of mother's education on children's educational attainment may have a big effect on future trends. Moreover, the proposed approach yields more consistent population projection outputs for specific subpopulations.

Keywords

EducationEuropeEuropean Unionhuman capitalmicrosimulationpopulationprojectionsociocultural

JEL classification

C53: Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods C00: General C15: Statistical Simulation Methods: General J1: Demographic Economics I24: Education and Inequality J24: Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity J15: Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants • Non-labor Discrimination
Type
Research Papers
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 85 , Issue 3 , September 2019 , pp. 231 - 269
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain 2019 

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