Unravelling the pastoralist paradox – preferences for land tenure security and flexibility in Kenya


 In this paper, we use a discrete choice experiment conducted among pastoralists in four different semi-arid counties in Kenya characterized by different land tenure regimes to analyze how pastoralists make tradeoffs between tenure security and grazing flexibility – the so-called pastoralist paradox. Results show that there is one group of respondents who are desperate for change and seem to prefer either group or private title deeds to their current situation. A second, smaller group has strong preferences for the status quo, which could be driven by their relatively short migration distances. Concerning index-based livestock insurance, the basis risk suffered by insured pastoralists due to underprediction is high, but willingness to pay (WTP) for livestock insurance should still be high enough to ensure maximum uptake, leaving current low uptakes hard to explain. The worry about climate change is high but does not translate into increased WTP for more secure tenure or formal livestock insurance.


Text introduction to the low climate variability treatment
Now we will ask you to make six choices between two possible tenure contracts and your current situation. The contracts are described by the type of tenure, the availability of livestock insurance and the cost of the contract. We will now describe what the different parts of the contract mean. 1) TYPE OF TENURE REGIME: The Kenyan constitution allows for three different types of land tenure: Private land, Community land and Public land. Each contract is defined by one of these tenure regimes.
2) THE DISTANCE TO EMERGENCY GRAZING AREAS: In case of extreme drought, it is important to have access to emergency grazing areas. However, land fragmentation can make the migration distance to alternative grazing areas longer. Each contract is defined by the distance to emergency grazing grounds.

3) AVAILABILITY OF LIVESTOCK INSURANCE: The Kenya Livestock Insurance
Programme, KLIP, is a government backed insurance scheme. The program allows a pastoralist to insure up to 14 animals against drought for about 960 Kenyan Shillings per animal and year.
The payouts are pegged to satellite measurements of forage conditions. Plans are to introduce KLIP throughout Kenya, however, there is a risk that the program will be discontinued because of its high cost. Each contract is defined by whether KLIP is available or not.

4) COST FOR TENURE REGISTRATION AND LAND SURVEYING: Each contract is
defined by the cost for tenure registration and land surveying.
WHEN MAKING YOUR CHOICE -think about the next ten years of livestock management, and assume that the drought frequency will NOT CHANGE in the future compared with today but stay as today with an average of 1 drought per 5 years. Please treat each choice as if it was real. There are no right or wrong answers and we are only interested in your opinion. If you choose to enter into a contract, you will have less money to spend on other things. Remember, you can always choose to stay with your current situation at no cost if you believe that is better.

Text introduction to the high climate variability treatment
Now we will ask you to make six choices between two possible tenure contracts and your current situation. The contracts are described by the type of tenure, the availability of livestock insurance and the cost of the contract. We will now describe what the different parts of the contract mean.
1) TYPE OF TENURE REGIME: The Kenyan constitution allows for three different types of land tenure: Private land, Community land and Public land. Each contract is defined by one of these tenure regimes.
2) THE DISTANCE TO EMERGENCY GRAZING AREAS: In case of extreme drought, it is important to have access to emergency grazing areas. However, land fragmentation can make the migration distance to alternative grazing areas longer. Each contract is defined by the distance to emergency grazing grounds.

3) AVAILABILITY OF LIVESTOCK INSURANCE: The Kenya Livestock Insurance
Programme, KLIP, is a government backed insurance scheme. The program allows a pastoralist to insure up to 14 animals against drought for about 960 Kenyan Shilling per animal and year.
The payouts are pegged to satellite measurements of forage conditions. Plans are to introduce KLIP throughout Kenya, however, there is a risk that the program will be discontinued because of its high cost. Each contract is defined by whether KLIP is available or not.

4) COST FOR TENURE REGISTRATION AND LAND SURVEYING: Each contract is
defined by the cost for tenure registration and land surveying. WHEN MAKING YOUR CHOICE -think about the next ten years of livestock management, and assume that the drought frequency will DOUBLE in the future compared with today with an average of 2 droughts per 5 years. Please treat each choice as if it was real. There are no right or wrong answers and we are only interested in your opinion. If you choose to enter into a contract, you will have less money to spend on other things. Remember, you can always choose to stay with your current situation at no cost if you believe that is better.  Figure A1. Graphical distribution of willingness-to-pay across the distribution of income share from livestock.