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What Makes People Worry about the Welfare State? A Three-Country Experiment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 November 2018

Achim Goerres ,
Rune Karlsen  and
Staffan Kumlin
Achim Goerres
Affiliation:
University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Political Science
Rune Karlsen*
Affiliation:
University of Oslo, Department of Media and Communication; Institute for Social Research, Oslo
Staffan Kumlin
Affiliation:
University of Oslo, Department of Political Science; Institute for Social Research, Oslo
*
*Corresponding author. Email: rune.karlsen@media.uio.no
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Abstract

Welfare states are exposed to a host of cost-inducing ‘reform pressures’. An experiment implemented in Germany, Norway and Sweden tests how various reform pressure frames affect perceptions about the future financial sustainability of the welfare state. Such perceptions have been shown to moderate electoral punishment for welfare reform, but little is known about their origins. Hypotheses are formulated in dialogue with newer research on welfare state change, as well as with older theory expecting more stability in policy and attitudes (the ‘new politics’ framework). Research drawing on ‘deservingness theory’ is also consulted. The results suggest large variations in impact across treatments. The most influential path to effective pressure framing is to ‘zoom in’ on specific economic pressures linked to undeserving groups (above all immigration, but also to some extent low employment). Conversely, a message emphasizing pressure linked to a very deserving group (population aging) had little effect. A second conceivable path to pressure framing entails ‘zooming out’ – making messages span a diverse and more broadly threatening set of challenges. This possibility, however, received weaker support.

Keywords

welfare statepublic opinionframingreform pressurewelfare state sustainabilityblame avoidance
Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 50 , Issue 4 , October 2020 , pp. 1519 - 1537
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2018

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