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Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment

Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment
A Practical Guide

$149.00 (P)

Part of ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability

  • Date Published: January 1987
  • availability: This item is not supplied by Cambridge University Press in your region. Please contact Soc for Industrial & Applied Mathematics for availability.
  • format: Hardback
  • isbn: 9780898714746

$ 149.00 (P)

This item is not supplied by Cambridge University Press in your region. Please contact Soc for Industrial & Applied Mathematics for availability.
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About the Authors
  • Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.

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    Product details

    • Date Published: January 1987
    • format: Hardback
    • isbn: 9780898714746
    • length: 491 pages
    • dimensions: 260 x 183 x 27 mm
    • weight: 1.095kg
    • availability: This item is not supplied by Cambridge University Press in your region. Please contact Soc for Industrial & Applied Mathematics for availability.
  • Table of Contents

    Preface to ASA-SIAM Edition
    List of Figures
    List of Tables
    List of Examples
    Part I. Introduction to Expert Judgment. 1. Introduction
    2. Common Questions and Pitfalls Concerning Expert Judgment
    3. Background on Human Problem Solving and Bias
    Part II. Elicitation Procedures. 4. Selecting the Question Areas and Questions
    5. Refining the Questions
    6. Selecting and Motivating the Experts
    7. Selecting the Components of Elicitation
    8. Designing and Tailoring the Elicitation
    9. Practicing the Elicitation and Training the Project Personnel
    10. Conducting the Elicitation
    Part III. Analysis Procedures. 11. Introducing the Techniques for Analysis of Expert Judgment Data
    12. Initial Look at the Data_The First Analyses
    13. Understanding the Data Base Structure
    14. Correlation and Bias Detection
    15. Model Formation
    16. Combining Responses_Aggregation
    17. Characterizing Uncertainties
    18. Making Inferences
    Appendix A. SAATY
    Appendix B. MCBETA
    Appendix C. EMPIRICAL
    Appendix D. BOOT
    Glossary of Expert Judgment Terms

  • Authors

    Mary A. Meyer, Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Jane M. Booker, Los Alamos National Laboratory

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