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Probabilistic Risk Analysis

Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Foundations and Methods


  • Authors:
  • Tim Bedford, Technische Universiteit Delft, The Netherlands
  • Roger Cooke, Technische Universiteit Delft, The Netherlands
  • Date Published: May 2001
  • availability: Available
  • format: Hardback
  • isbn: 9780521773201

£ 83.99

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About the Authors
  • Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.

    • Discussion of the nature of uncertainty and the limits to quantification
    • Model quantification using expert judgement, and uncertainty analysis to explore sensitivity of model to uncertainties in parameters
    • Many exercises with solutions available to teachers
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    Reviews & endorsements

    'This is a valuable reference book … devoid of unnecessary repetition of what has been written earlier by other authors. The book is fresh, neat and comprehensive. I highly recommend it.' Igor Kozine, Risk Decision and Policy

    'The presentation is to the point, clear and perfectly highlighted through well chosen practical examples and exercises … I for one learned a lot from reading this book and whole-heartedly recommend it for its intended readership.' P. A. L. Embrechts, Short Book Reviews

    '… a text of enormous coverage.' The Mathematical Gazette

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    Product details

    • Date Published: May 2001
    • format: Hardback
    • isbn: 9780521773201
    • length: 414 pages
    • dimensions: 244 x 170 x 24 mm
    • weight: 0.95kg
    • contains: 105 b/w illus. 47 tables 76 exercises
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    Part I. Introduction:
    1. Probabilistic risk analysis
    Part II. Theoretical Issues and Background:
    2. What is uncertainty?
    3. Probabilistic methods
    4. Statistical inference
    5. Weibull analysis
    Part II. System Analysis and Quantification:
    6. Fault and event trees
    7. Fault trees - analysis
    8. Dependent failures
    9. Reliability data bases
    10. Expert opinion
    11. Human reliability
    12. Software reliability
    Part IV. Uncertainty Modeling and Risk Measurement:
    13. Decision theory
    14. Influence diagrams and belief nets
    15. Project risk management
    16. Probabilistic inversion
    17. Uncertainty analysis
    18. Risk measurement and regulation

  • Instructors have used or reviewed this title for the following courses

    • Applied Risk Analysis
    • Probabilistic Risk Assessment
  • Authors

    Tim Bedford, Technische Universiteit Delft, The Netherlands

    Roger Cooke, Technische Universiteit Delft, The Netherlands

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