Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment
A Practical Guide
Part of ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability
- Authors:
- Mary A. Meyer, Los Alamos National Laboratory
- Jane M. Booker, Los Alamos National Laboratory
- Date Published: January 2001
- availability: Available in limited markets only
- format: Hardback
- isbn: 9780898714746
Hardback
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Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
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×Product details
- Date Published: January 2001
- format: Hardback
- isbn: 9780898714746
- length: 491 pages
- dimensions: 260 x 183 x 27 mm
- weight: 1.095kg
- availability: Available in limited markets only
Table of Contents
Preface to ASA-SIAM Edition
Preface
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Examples
Part I. Introduction to Expert Judgment. 1. Introduction
2. Common Questions and Pitfalls Concerning Expert Judgment
3. Background on Human Problem Solving and Bias
Part II. Elicitation Procedures. 4. Selecting the Question Areas and Questions
5. Refining the Questions
6. Selecting and Motivating the Experts
7. Selecting the Components of Elicitation
8. Designing and Tailoring the Elicitation
9. Practicing the Elicitation and Training the Project Personnel
10. Conducting the Elicitation
Part III. Analysis Procedures. 11. Introducing the Techniques for Analysis of Expert Judgment Data
12. Initial Look at the Data_The First Analyses
13. Understanding the Data Base Structure
14. Correlation and Bias Detection
15. Model Formation
16. Combining Responses_Aggregation
17. Characterizing Uncertainties
18. Making Inferences
Appendix A. SAATY
Appendix B. MCBETA
Appendix C. EMPIRICAL
Appendix D. BOOT
Glossary of Expert Judgment Terms
References
Index.
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