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Probability and Evidence

Probability and Evidence

$40.99 (C)

Part of Cambridge Studies in Philosophy

  • Date Published: June 2011
  • availability: Available
  • format: Paperback
  • isbn: 9780521283366

$ 40.99 (C)

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About the Authors
  • In this volume, which was originally published in 1982, Paul Horwich presents a clear and unified approach to a number of problems in the philosophy of science. He diagnoses the failure of other attempts to resolve them as stemming from a too-rigid, all-or-nothing conception of belief, and adopts instead a Bayesian strategy, emphasising the degree of confidence to which we are entitled the light of scientific evidence. This probabilistic approach, he argues, yields a more complete understanding of the assumptions and procedures characteristic of scientific reasoning. It also accounts for the merits of simplicity, severe tests and surprising predictions, and provides a way in which the dispute between the realist and instrumentalist views of science might be resolved. The result is a crisp, well-focused contribution to the philosophy of science. The elaboration of an important conception of probability will stimulate anyone with an interest in the field.

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    Product details

    • Date Published: June 2011
    • format: Paperback
    • isbn: 9780521283366
    • length: 158 pages
    • dimensions: 216 x 140 x 9 mm
    • weight: 0.21kg
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    Part I. Methodology:
    1. Introduction
    2. Aspects of the scientific method
    3. A taste of Bayesianism
    Part II. Probability:
    4. The primitive theory
    5. Subjectivism
    6. The rationalist interpretation
    7. The logical interpretation
    8. The evidential state
    9. The empirical interpretation
    Part III. Confirmation:
    10. Explications
    11. The paradox
    12. A Bayesian pseudo-solution to the problem of induction
    13. Projection
    Part IV. Induction
    Section 1. The Nature of Inductive Inference
    Section 2. Conditions of Rationality:
    14. Demonstrable reliability
    15. The demonstrable reliability of c+
    16. Immodesty
    17. Audacity
    Section 3. The Justification of Induction:
    18. The impossibility of a noncircular rationale
    19. Inductive demonstration of reliability
    20. Semantic justification
    Part V. Prediction:
    21. Surprise
    22. Severe tests
    23. Ad hoc hypothesis
    24. Prediction versus accommodation
    Part VI. Evidence:
    25. The evidential value of varied data
    26. The value of further data
    Part VII. Realism:
    27. Popper
    28. Realism versus instrumentalism
    29. Putnam
    30. Glymour
    31. Conclusion

  • Author

    Paul Horwich

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