Skip to content
Register Sign in Wishlist

Polling at a Crossroads
Rethinking Modern Survey Research

$34.99 (P)

Part of Methodological Tools in the Social Sciences

  • Date Published: March 2024
  • availability: Available
  • format: Paperback
  • isbn: 9781108710930

$ 34.99 (P)
Paperback

Add to cart Add to wishlist

Other available formats:
Hardback, eBook


Looking for an examination copy?

If you are interested in the title for your course we can consider offering an examination copy. To register your interest please contact collegesales@cambridge.org providing details of the course you are teaching.

Description
Product filter button
Description
Contents
Resources
Courses
About the Authors
  • Survey research is in a state of crisis. People have become less willing to respond to polls and recent misses in critical elections have undermined the field's credibility. Pollsters have developed many tools for dealing with the new environment, an increasing number of which rely on risky opt-in samples. Virtually all of these tools require that respondents in each demographic category are a representative sample of all people in each demographic category, something that is unlikely to be reliably true. Polling at a Crossroads moves beyond such strong limitations, providing tools that work even when survey respondents are unrepresentative in complex ways. This book provides case studies that show how to avoid underestimating Trump support and how conventional polls exaggerate partisan differences. This book also helps us think in clear and sometimes counterintuitive ways and points toward simple, low-cost changes that can better address contemporary polling challenges.

    • Uses the lens of contemporary theory and practice to explore the history of polling in way that allows readers to understand why modern polling struggles
    • provides low-cost, actionable tools to counter all kinds of non-response
    • Provides intuitive explanations of the challenges facing contemporary polling
    Read more

    Reviews & endorsements

    ‘Throughout the masterful Polling at a Crossroads, Bailey provides a lucid explanation of the problems pollsters face and a compelling argument for why a new approach is needed. By bringing ideas and insights from various disciplines together, Bailey shows how pollsters can move beyond past approaches to tackle increasingly consequential issues related to survey non-response; respondents now differ from non-respondents in unobservable ways. In describing the issues confronting contemporary polling, the book builds to a convincing and forceful advocacy for the use of selection models in survey research and, in so doing, it provides a perspective that every pollster must consider going forward.’ Josh Clinton, Abby and Jon Winkelried Chair, Vanderbilt University

    ‘The idea of learning about a country of 300 millions from a sample of 300 is extremely seductive. But seduction often comes with dangers. Bailey's timely book explains why the dangers are increasingly fatal, and how the field of polling may save itself.’ Xiao-Li Meng, Whipple V. N. Jones Professor of Statistics, Harvard University

    See more reviews

    Customer reviews

    Not yet reviewed

    Be the first to review

    Review was not posted due to profanity

    ×

    , create a review

    (If you're not , sign out)

    Please enter the right captcha value
    Please enter a star rating.
    Your review must be a minimum of 12 words.

    How do you rate this item?

    ×

    Product details

    • Date Published: March 2024
    • format: Paperback
    • isbn: 9781108710930
    • length: 290 pages
    • dimensions: 228 x 149 x 16 mm
    • weight: 0.43kg
    • availability: Available
  • Table of Contents

    Part I. Polling in Context:
    1. Modern Polling: Challenges and Opportunities
    2. The Story of Polling in 2.5 Fiascos
    3. Weighting: An Appreciation and Critique
    4. The Wild West of Contemporary Polling
    Part II. A Framework for Modern Polling:
    5. Non-Ignorable Non-Response
    6. Contemporary Polling and Non-Ignorable Non-Response
    Part III. Fighting Non-Ignorable Non-Response:
    7. Bounding Damage from Non-Ignorable Non-Response
    8. Selection Models for Non-Ignorable Non-Response
    9. Next Generation Selection Models
    10. Randomized Response Instruments
    11. Putting it Together
    Part IV Applications:
    12. Non-Ignorable Non-Response in Political Surveys
    13. Non-Ignorable Non-Response in Public Health
    14. Conclusion.

  • Author

    Michael A. Bailey, Georgetown University, Washington DC
    Michael A. Bailey is Walsh Professor in the Department of Government and McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University, where he directs the Data Science for Public Policy program. His research has been published in top academic journals. He is author of Real Econometrics (2020) and The Constrained Court (2011).

Related Books

Browse by related subject

Sorry, this resource is locked

Please register or sign in to request access. If you are having problems accessing these resources please email lecturers@cambridge.org

Register Sign in
Please note that this file is password protected. You will be asked to input your password on the next screen.

» Proceed

You are now leaving the Cambridge University Press website. Your eBook purchase and download will be completed by our partner www.ebooks.com. Please see the permission section of the www.ebooks.com catalogue page for details of the print & copy limits on our eBooks.

Continue ×

Continue ×

Continue ×
warning icon

Turn stock notifications on?

You must be signed in to your Cambridge account to turn product stock notifications on or off.

Sign in Create a Cambridge account arrow icon
×

Find content that relates to you

Join us online

This site uses cookies to improve your experience. Read more Close

Are you sure you want to delete your account?

This cannot be undone.

Cancel

Thank you for your feedback which will help us improve our service.

If you requested a response, we will make sure to get back to you shortly.

×
Please fill in the required fields in your feedback submission.
×