Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-m6dg7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-10-31T09:37:23.983Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

12 - Impact of Inter-Basin Water Transfer on Water Scarcity in Water-Receiving Area under Global Warming

A Case Study of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project

from Part II - Climate Risk to Human and Natural Systems

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 March 2022

Qiuhong Tang
Affiliation:
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
Guoyong Leng
Affiliation:
Oxford University Centre for the Environment
Get access

Summary

Water scarcity is increasingly perceived as a risk in semi-arid and arid regions and it will be more critical in the future. Inter-basin water transfer (IBT) is widely considered as a climate adaptation strategy to minimize water scarcity in water-receiving areas. The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is the world’s largest IBT project to alleviate severe water shortages in the Huang–Huai–Hai (HHH) region in China. This chapter takes the SNWD project as an example to quantitatively investigate the impact of the large scale IBT on water scarcity in the HHH region within the context of climate change. The results show that during the twenty-first century, the water supply risk in the region is projected to increase as a result of climatic and societal change. The SNWD project can greatly alleviate water scarcity but might be insufficient in some cases. Besides, to keep pace with escalating demands and completely alleviate water supply problems, demand-oriented management schemes, such as improvement in irrigation water use efficiency, must be undertaken.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2022

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alam, M. (2016). Evaluating the benefit-cost ratio of groundwater abstraction for additional irrigation water on global scale. Degree Project in Environmental Engineering, Second Cycle, 30 Credits, Stockholm, Sweden.Google Scholar
Alcamo, J., Dǒll, P., Henrichs, T., et al. (2003). Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future ‘business-as-usual’ conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal 48(3): 339348.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bondeau, A., Smith, P., Zaehle, S., et al. (2007). Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Global Change Biology 13(3): 679706.Google Scholar
CAB-SNWDP (Construction and Administration Bureau of South to North Water Diversion Project, Ministry of Water Resources of China) (2003). Introduction of south to north water diversion project’s plan. China Water Resources B: 5662 (in Chinese).Google Scholar
Cosgrove, W., & Loucks, D. (2015). Water management: Current and future challenges and research directions. Water Resources Research 51(6): 48234839.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dziegielewski, B., Sharma, S. C., Bik, T. J., Margono, H., & Yang, X. (2002). Analysis of Water Use Trends in the Unites States: 1950–1995. Special Report 28. Urbana-Champaign, IL: Illinois Water Resources Center, University of Illinois.Google Scholar
Eldardiry, H., Habib, E., & Borrok, D. (2016). Small scale catchment analysis of water stress in wet regions of the U.S.: An example from Louisiana. Environmental Research Letters 11(12): 124031.Google Scholar
Fader, M., Rost, S., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., & Gerten, D. (2010). Virtual water content of temperate cereals and maize: Present and potential future patterns. Journal of Hydrology 384(3–4): 218231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (2003). Water Report (Book 23): Review of World Water Resources by Country. Rome: FAO.Google Scholar
Flörke, M., Kynast, E., Bärlund, I., Eisner, S., Wimmer, F., & Alcamo, J. (2013). Domestic and industrial water uses of the past 60 years as a mirror of socio-economic development: A global simulation study. Global Environment Change 23(1): 144156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fu, J. Y., Jiang, D., & Huang, Y. H. (2014). 1 km grid population dataset of China (2005, 2010). Acta Geographica Sinica 69(Suppl.): 136139.Google Scholar
Gaffin, S. R., Rosenzweig, C., Xing, X. S., & Yetman, G. (2004). Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Global Environmental Change 14(2): 105123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gain, A. K., Giupponi, C., & Wada, Y. (2016). Measuring global water security towards sustainable development goals. Environmental Research Letters 11(12): 124015.Google Scholar
GAQUIQ and SAC (General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People’s Republic of China, and Standardization Administration of the People’s Republic of China) (2009). GB/T 23598-2009, Code of practice for water resources bulletin (in Chinese).Google Scholar
Gu, H., Yu, Z., & Wang, J. (2014). Future extreme climates projection over Huang-Huai-Hai region of China. Advanced Materials Research 955: 38873892.Google Scholar
Gupta, J., & van der Zaag, P. (2008). Interbasin water transfers and integrated water resources management: Where engineering, science and politics interlock. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33(1–2): 2840.Google Scholar
Haddeland, I., Heinke, J., Biemans, H., et al. (2014). Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 111(9): 32513256.Google Scholar
Hanasaki, N., Fujimori, S., Yamamoto, T., et al. (2013). A global water scarcity assessment under shared socio-economic pathways – Part 1: Water use. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17(7): 23752391.Google Scholar
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., et al. (2008a). An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing. Hydrology and Earth System Science 12(4): 10071025.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., et al. (2008b). An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments. Hydrology and Earth System Science 12(4): 10271037.Google Scholar
Hanasaki, N., Yoshikawa, S., Pokhrel, Y., & Kanae, S. (2018). A global hydrological simulation to specify the sources of water used by humans. Hydrology and Earth System Science 22(1): 789817.Google Scholar
Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V., Gosling, S., et al. (2017). Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins. Climatic Change 141: 561576.Google Scholar
Hawkins, E., & Sutton, R. (2009). The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90(8): 10951107.Google Scholar
Hawkins, E., Osborne, T. M., Ho, C. K., & Challinor, A. J. (2013). Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealized case study over Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170: 1931.Google Scholar
High-level Panel on Water (2018). Making Every Drop Count: An Agenda for Water Action: High-Level Panel on Water Outcome Document. New York: High-Level Panel on Water, United Nations Division for Sustainable Development (UN DESA), 14 March 2018.Google Scholar
Ho, C., Stephenson, S., Collins, M., Freeo, C., & Brown, S. (2012). Calibration strategies: A source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(1): 2126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoekstra, A. (2014). Water scarcity challenges to business. Nature Climate Change 4: 318320.Google Scholar
Huang, J., Qin, D., Jiang, T., et al. (2018a). Effect of fertility policy changes on the population structure and economy of China: From the perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Earth’s Future 7(3): 250265.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huang, Y. H., Jiang, D., & Fu, J. Y. (2014). 1 km grid GDP data of China (2005, 2010). Acta Geographica Sinica 69(Suppl.): 140143.Google Scholar
Huang, Z., Hejazi, M., Li, X., et al. (2018b). Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971–2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22(4): 21172133.Google Scholar
Hughes, B. B. (2005). UNEP GEO4 Diver Scenarios (fifth draft). Denver, CO: Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver.Google Scholar
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014). Summary for policymakers Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: A. Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., et al. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kong, X., Lal, R., Li, B., et al. (2014). Fertilizer intensification and its impacts in China’s HHH plains. In Sparks, D. L. (ed.), Advances in Agronomy (pp. 135169). Oxford: Elsevier Science & Technology.Google Scholar
Kummu, M., Ward, P. J., de Moel, H., & Varis, O. (2010). Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia. Environmental Research Letters 5: 034006.Google Scholar
Li, W., Sankarasubramanian, A., Ranjithan, R. A., & Brill, E. D. (2014). Improved regional water management utilizing climate forecasts: An interbasin transfer model with a risk management framework. Water Resources Research 50(8): 68106827.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liao, X., Hall, J., & Eyre, N. (2016). Water use in China’s thermoelectric power sector. Global Environmental Change 41: 142152.Google Scholar
Liu, C., & Zhang, H. (2002). South-to-north water transfer schemes for China. Water Resources Development 18(3): 453471.Google Scholar
Liu, Y., Long, H., Li, T., & Tu, S. (2015). Land use transitions and their effects on water environment in Huang-Huai-Hai plain, China. Land Use Policy 47: 293301.Google Scholar
Lu, G., Xiao, H., Wu, Z., Zhang, S., & Li, Y. (2013). Assessing the impacts of future climate change on hydrology in Huang-Huai-Hai region in China using the PRECIS and VIC models. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 18(9): 10771087.Google Scholar
Ma, J. (2004). China’s Water Crisis. Norwalk, CT: EastBridge.Google Scholar
Milly, P., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., et al. (2008). Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science 319(5863): 573574.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Monfreda, C., Ramankutty, N., & Foley, J. A. (2008). Farming the planet, part 2: The geographic distribution of crop areas and yields in the year 2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22(1): GB1022.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MWR (Ministry of Water Resources) (2002). South–North Water Transfer Project Masterplan (Summary). Beijing: Ministry of Water Resources (in Chinese).Google Scholar
MWRC (Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China) (2011). National Integrated Water Resources Planning of China (2000–2030). Beijing: Ministry of Water Resources (in Chinese).Google Scholar
NBSC (National Bureau of Statistics of China) (2011). China Statistical Yearbook 2010. Beijing: China Statistics Press (in Chinese).Google Scholar
NDRC (National Development & Reform Commission) (2007). China’s National Climate Change Programme [English version]. Beijing: National Development & Reform Commission.Google Scholar
O’Neill, B., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K., et al. (2017). The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change 42: 169180.Google Scholar
Office of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project Construction Committee, State Council (PRC) (2016). The south-to-north water diversion project. Engineering 2(3): 265267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pittock, J., Meng, J., & Chapagain, A. (2009). Interbasin Water Transfers and Water Scarcity in a Changing World – A Solution or a Pipedream? Germany: World Wide Fund (WWF).Google Scholar
Portmann, F. T., Siebert, S., & Döll, P. (2010). MIRCA2000 – Global monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000: A new high-resolution data set for agricultural and hydrological modeling. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 24(1): GB1011.Google Scholar
Rajagopalan, B., Nowak, K., Prairie, J., et al. (2009). Water supply risk on the Colorado River: Can management mitigate? Water Resources Research 45(8): W08201.Google Scholar
Rost, S., Gerten, D., Bondeau, A., Lucht, W., Rohwer, J., & Schaphoff, S. (2008). Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resources Research 44(9): W09405.Google Scholar
Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., et al. (2014). Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 111(9): 32453250.Google Scholar
Shi, Y. C. (2003). Comprehensive reclamation of salt-affected soils in China’s Huang-Huai-Hai plain. In Goyal, S. S., Sharma, S. K., & Rains, D. W. (eds.), Crop Production in Saline Environments: Global and Integrative Perspectives (pp. 163179). New York: Food Products Press.Google Scholar
Shiklomanov, I. (2000). Appraisal and assessment of world water resources. Water International 25(1): 1132.Google Scholar
Shumilova, O., Tockner, K., Thieme, M., Koska, A., & Zarfl, C. (2018). Global water transfer megaprojects: A potential solution for the water-food-energy nexus? Frontiers in Environmental Science, 6: 150.Google Scholar
Siebert, S., & Döll, P. (2010). Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation. Journal of Hydrology 384(3–4): 198217.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Siebert, S., Döll, P., Feick, S., Hoogeveen, J., & Frenken, K. (2007). Global Map of Irrigation Areas Version 4.0.1. Frankfurt am Main: Institute of Physical Geography, University of Frankfurt.Google Scholar
Sun, G., McNulty, S. G., Myers, J. A. M., & Cohen, E. C. (2008). Impacts of multiple stresses on water demand and supply across the southeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resource Association 44(6): 14411457.Google Scholar
Tian, Z., Shi, J., Gao, Z., & Tubiello, F. N. (2008). Assessing the impact of future climate change on wheat production in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China based on GIS and crop model. Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability, 7083.Google Scholar
UN Water (United Nations Water). (2017). Level of water stress: Freshwater withdrawal in percentage of available freshwater resources (Version 19 January 2017). Integrated Monitoring Guide for SDG6: Step-by-step monitoring methodology for indicator 6.4.2. Available from www.unwater.org/publications (Last accessed 17 August 2019).Google Scholar
Verma, S., Kampman, D., der Zaag, P., & Hoekstra, A. (2009). Going against the flow: A critical analysis of inter-state virtual water trade in the context of India’s National River Linking Program. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 34(4–5): 261269.Google Scholar
van Vuuren, D., Kriegler, E., O’Neill, B., et al. (2014). A new framework for climate change research: Scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change 122(3): 373386.Google Scholar
Wada, Y., Flörkem, M., Hanasaki, N., et al. (2016). Modeling global water use for the 21st century: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(1): 175222.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wada, Y., van Beek, L., van Kempen, C., Reckman, J., Vasak, S., & Bierkens, M. (2010). Global depletion of groundwater resources. Geophysical Research Letters 37: L20402.Google Scholar
Wada, Y., van Beek, L., Viviroli, D., Duee, H. H., Weingartner, R., & Bierkens, M. (2011). Global monthly water stress: 2 Water demand and severity of water stress. Water Resources Research, 47(7): W07518.Google Scholar
Wada, Y., Wisser, D., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2014). Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources. Earth System Dynamics 5(1): 1540.Google Scholar
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., & Schewe, J. (2014). The inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison projection (ISI-MIP): Project framework. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 111(9): 32283232.Google Scholar
Wei, C. (2000). South to North Water Transfer Project in China. Beijing: China Agriculture Press (in Chinese).Google Scholar
WWAP (World Water Assessment Programme) (2009). The United Nations World Water Development Report 3: Water in a Changing World. Paris: UNESCO Publishing.Google Scholar
Xia, J. (2012). Climate change impact on water security and adaptive management in China: Introduction. Water International 37(5): 509511.Google Scholar
Xia, J., Qiu, B., & Li, Y. Y. (2012). Water resources vulnerability and adaptive management in the Huang, Huai and Hai river basins of China. Water International 37(5): 523536.Google Scholar
Yin, Y., Tang, Q., Liu, X., & Zhang, X. (2017). Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21(2): 791804.Google Scholar
Zeng, Y., & Hesketh, T. (2016). The effects of China’s universal two-child policy. Lancet 388(10054): 19301938.Google Scholar
Zhang, C., & Anadon, L. D. (2013). Life cycle water use of energy production and its environmental impacts in China. Environmental Science and Technology 47(24): 1445914467.Google Scholar
Zhang, C., Zhong, L., Fu, X., Wang, J., & Wu, Z. (2016). Revealing water stress by the thermal power industry in China based on a high spatial resolution water withdrawal and consumption inventory. Environmental Science and Technology 50(4): 16421652.Google Scholar
Zhang, Q., Xu, Z., Shen, Z., Li, S., & Wang, S. (2009). The Han River watershed management initiative for the South-to-North Water Transfer project (middle route) of China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 148: 369377.Google Scholar
Zhang, X. (1999). South to North Water Transfer Project: Supporting Project for China’s Sustainable Development. Beijing: China Water & Power Press (in Chinese).Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×