Book contents
- Explaining the Evidence
- Explaining the Evidence
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- Chapter 1 The Cliff Death
- Chapter 2 Models in Mind
- Chapter 3 Causal Modelling
- Chapter 4 Thinking beyond Biases
- Chapter 5 Expert Reasoning in Crime Investigation
- Chapter 6 Questions of Evidence
- Chapter 7 Competing Causes
- Chapter 8 Confirmation Bias
- Chapter 9 Telling Stories
- Chapter 10 Idioms for Legal Reasoning
- Chapter 11 Causal Reasoning in a Time of Crisis
- References
- Index
Chapter 3 - Causal Modelling
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 20 October 2021
- Explaining the Evidence
- Explaining the Evidence
- Copyright page
- Dedication
- Contents
- Figures
- Tables
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- Chapter 1 The Cliff Death
- Chapter 2 Models in Mind
- Chapter 3 Causal Modelling
- Chapter 4 Thinking beyond Biases
- Chapter 5 Expert Reasoning in Crime Investigation
- Chapter 6 Questions of Evidence
- Chapter 7 Competing Causes
- Chapter 8 Confirmation Bias
- Chapter 9 Telling Stories
- Chapter 10 Idioms for Legal Reasoning
- Chapter 11 Causal Reasoning in a Time of Crisis
- References
- Index
Summary
In Chapter 3 I introduce the basics of causal modelling and Bayes nets. I show how formal causal models support various types of inference, including prediction, diagnosis, intervention-based reasoning and counterfactuals. The framework serves several purposes: helping us to build formal models of legal cases, giving us a benchmark against which to assess human inference, and suggesting how people can improve their reasoning.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Explaining the EvidenceHow the Mind Investigates the World, pp. 32 - 73Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2021