Energy futures and the case for renewables and cleantech can be framed in terms of their contribution to mitigation of climate change, as well as cleanliness and absence of carbon emissions. By contrast, energy security is generally discussed in terms of access to fossil fuels. In this chapter we make a different case for renewables: we contrast the extraction of energy (fuels), which – in spite of technological change – takes place under diminishing returns, with the harvesting of nature's renewable energy, which takes place in a process utilizing manufactured devices, where manufacturing generates increasing returns and costs decline along steep learning curves. This gives a fresh perspective on both renewables and energy security. We argue that energy choices can be framed as choices in favour of increasing returns (based on manufacturing), vs. choices in favour of diminishing returns activities, which usually involve extraction of fossil fuels. Such a framing does not entail assumptions as to whether the entire energy system can be converted to renewables, but simply as choices made at the margin – whose effects will cumulate over time. Energy security through renewables manufacturing therefore promises to be a fruitful area of futures studies.

Introduction

Energy policy and the discussion of energy futures have moved to the centre-stage of political and policy debate – driven by concerns over global warming and the impact of the continued burning of fossil fuels. The case for renewables and cleantech is usually given in terms of contribution to mitigation of climate change, as well as cleanliness and absence of carbon emissions. Energy security too is widely discussed, and usually in the context of securing access to fossil fuels, either of the traditional kind (oil, gas, coal) or the new non-traditional fuels (coal seam gas, shale oil).

In this chapter we link the two and thereby make a quite different case for renewables, couched in terms of their contribution to energy security. Renewable energy systems embody technological change, manufacturing, learning curve effects and the capture of increasing returns. Because they are produced by manufacturing activities, which can be conducted virtually anywhere, they offer prospects of long-term energy security for the countries that adopt them. Renewables may be viewed as a developmental strategic choice – and the effects on climate change mitigation, energy security and environmental cleanliness are useful and desirable adjuncts.