Preamble

Inspired by the chaos of opinion regarding the meaning and importance of simplicity in scientific research, including economics and econometrics, the Tilburg Simplicity Conference was held in January 1997 in an attempt to shed some light on this important topic. In preparing for the conference, a survey was conducted in late 1995 among the living Nobel laureates in economic science about their views as to the meaning and importance of simplicity in their own research. Specifically, the editors of this monograph requested the views of the Nobel laureates on the following three questions:

1. What is the meaning of simplicity?

2. Has simplicity played a role in their research?

3. Is simplicity a desirable, undesirable or irrelevant feature of economic theories and models?

For the 27–year period 1969–95, there were forty Nobel laureates (eighteen were sole recipients, two awardees shared the prize on eight occasions, and three awardees shared the prize on two occasions). Of the forty awardees, twenty-five of the twenty-six still living were sent the survey request. There were nine respondents with seven detailed responses, of whom one (Herbert A. Simon) sent a paper that appears in the monograph.

It is instructive that, of the twenty-seven citations for the laureates, not one mentions ‘simplicity’ and only one mentions ‘complexity’, as follows: