Until recently, Malaysia seemed on course to transition from a one-party dominant regime to a two-coalition system. However, following the 2020 Sheraton Move, the country's political panorama has produced perplexing permutations. Rather than competition between the government and the opposition, 2022 was characterized by tectonic tensions within the ruling coalition comprised of Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN).

At the heart of the matter lay a sclerotic and divided United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) unable to come to terms with its 2018 defeat. Consigned to the parliamentary backbench, party president Zahid and much of the organization's apex pushed tirelessly for early elections—pandemic and budgetary worries notwithstanding. Even though the polls were not due until mid-2023, this group felt that the political winds presaged an outright parliamentary majority for Malaysia's grand old party. Securing the control of government would allow the country to revert to the “norm” of UMNO and BN rule, and likely resolve the legal troubles besieging its top leadership—not least those facing Zahid Hamidi and former prime minister Najib Razak.

Subordinate to Zahid in the party hierarchy but leading the government, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob and a group of UMNO cabinet members sought to prolong their sojourn at the apex of power. Enjoying generally cordial ties with other coalition members such as Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) and the Islamic party PAS, the Ismail Sabri grouping sought to accommodate demands for snap polls without actually holding them.

The back-and-forth between these two factions, with occasional overtures to the opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan, was the theme of 2022, continuing up to the 15th General Election (GE15) in November and its dramatic denouement.

The Johor State Election

In early 2022, the wind was in Barisan Nasional's sails. On the back of their successful performance in the Melaka election in December 2021, BN called for elections in Johor in March. At first blush, the ploy worked as BN more than doubled their 19 seats to 40 in the Johor state assembly. The opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) was decimated, with their holdings plummeting from 36 to 13. An analysis of voting patterns found that turnout was lowest in urban constituencies that had traditionally leaned to the opposition.