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Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Randolph M. Siverson  and
Harvey Starr
Randolph M. Siverson
Affiliation:
University of California, Davis
Harvey Starr
Affiliation:
University of South Carolina
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Abstract

Using borders and alliances as indicators of opportunity and willingness, respectively, we test the relationship between these and the diffusion of war during the 1816–1965 period. The impact of borders and alliances, individually and in combination, on the growth of ongoing war through “infectious” diffusion is shown through the comparison of baseline cases to cases where states at peace were exposed to various “treatments” comprised of warring border nations or warring alliance partners. The findings indicate that the probability of war diffusion is substantially increased as opportunities and willingness increase, particularly when such geographic and political factors are combined. The applicability of the opportunity and willingness framework to the study of war and diffusion is expanded and confirmed.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 84 , Issue 1 , March 1990 , pp. 47 - 67
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1990

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