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Do Political Elites Have Accurate Perceptions of Social Conditions?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 January 2023

Adam Thal Open the ORCID record for Adam Thal [Opens in a new window]
Adam Thal*
Affiliation:
Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, CA, USA
*
Corresponding author. Email: adam.thal@lmu.edu
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Abstract

Politicians often oppose economic policies benefiting low-income Americans. However, the mechanisms behind this political inequality are unclear. I ask whether politicians oppose these policies, in part, because they underestimate how many of those they govern are struggling financially. I test this theory with an original survey of 1,265 state legislative candidates. Contrary to my expectations, I find that politicians tend to overestimate how many of those they govern are struggling financially. At the same time, there are some instances in which politicians—and Republicans in particular—do underestimate the level of financial hardship among those they govern. In an experiment, I randomly assign politicians to have their misperceptions corrected. The results suggest that politicians' policy preferences would be similar even if they had a more accurate understanding of reality. Overall, the findings suggest that politicians may frequently misperceive the state of reality in which those they govern live.

Keywords

political elitesmisperceptionspolitical inequalitysurvey experiments
Type
Article
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 53 , Issue 4 , October 2023 , pp. 1189 - 1207
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press

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