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Validation of a Belgian Prediction Model for Patient Encounters at Belgium’s Largest Public Cultural Mass Gathering

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 June 2021

Kris Spaepen Open the ORCID record for Kris Spaepen [Opens in a new window] ,
Geert Arno ,
Leonard Kaufman ,
Winne Haenen  and
Ives Hubloue
Kris Spaepen*
Affiliation:
Research Group on Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Vrije Universiteit Brussels, Belgium
Geert Arno
Affiliation:
Crisis Management at Federal Public Health Service, Belgium
Leonard Kaufman
Affiliation:
Research Group on Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Vrije Universiteit Brussels, Belgium
Winne Haenen
Affiliation:
Crisis Management at Federal Public Health Service, Belgium
Ives Hubloue
Affiliation:
Research Group on Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Vrije Universiteit Brussels, Belgium
*
Corresponding author: Kris Spaepen, Email: kris.spaepen@vub.be.
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Abstract

Objective:

To compare actual patient presentation rates from Belgium’s largest public open-air cultural festival with predictions provided by existing models and the Belgian Plan Risk Manifestations model.

Methods:

Retrospectively, actual patient presentation rates gathered from the Ghent Festivities (Belgium) during 2013–2019 were compared to predicted patient presentation rates by the Arbon, Hartman, and PRIMA models.

Results:

During 7 editions, 8673000 people visited the Ghent Festivities; 9146 sought medical assistance resulting in a mean patient presentation rate (PPR) of 1.05. The PRIMA model overestimated the number of patient encounters for each occasion. The other models had a high rate of underprediction. When comparing deviations in predictions between the PRIMA model to the other models, there is a significant difference in the mean deviation (Arbon: T = 0.000, P < 0.0001, r = −0.8701; Hartman: T = 0.000, P < 0.0001, r = −0.869).

Conclusion:

Despite the differences between the predictions of all 3 models, our results suggest that the PRIMA model is a valid tool to predict patient presentations to IEHS during public cultural MG. However, to substantiate the PRIMA model even further, more research is needed to further validate the model for a broad range of MG.

Keywords

mass gathering medicinepatient presentationpredictionvalidationemergency medical services
Type
Original Research
Information
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness , Volume 16 , Issue 3 , June 2022 , pp. 1128 - 1133
Copyright
© Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc. 2021

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