Aiming for hepatitis C elimination by 2030, Taiwan has set up a mid-term goal of “over 50 percent of patients treated by 2025.” Among various aspects of evidence that are needed, the target number to be treated is difficult to estimate with certainty due to great geographical heterogeneity of hepatitis C prevalence, and the absence of a nation-wide large scale prevalence survey.

A broad estimate of the number of patients to be treated with high uncertainty was calculated, and reimbursement criteria were set for year 2017 given limited data and treatment budget. In the meanwhile, various sources and approaches to estimate the target number to be treated, and to identify the high prevalence areas, were collected and synthesized for future planning through a systematic review of published data and consulting experts for unpublished data. An expert panel was consulted for the level of confidence and completeness of the evidence. A plan for using real-world data to reduce the uncertainty after initial actions of national program was also in place.

Eight thousand patients who fulfilled the reimbursement criteria were treated in 2017 as planned. Strategic steps were identified based on the collected data, and the treatment target, namely 200,000 patients to be treated during 2018 to 2025, was then set for appropriate action plans. National registry infrastructure is planned for supporting future policy modification.

Hepatitis C elimination is an important public health task and it requires immediate actions. The expected expenses are high, yet the number of patients is difficult to estimate with precision. How to deal with this uncertainty (financially and in care program design) will be the most challenging part. An adaptive approach (“evidence”-”action”-”more evidence”-”modified action”) could be the pragmatic way to move forward without sacrificing the quality of decision-making.