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Why the 2020 Belarusian Protests Failed to Oust Lukashenka

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 June 2023

Lucan Way Open the ORCID record for Lucan Way [Opens in a new window]  and
Amelie Tolvin Open the ORCID record for Amelie Tolvin [Opens in a new window]
Lucan Way*
Affiliation:
University of Toronto, Canada
Amelie Tolvin
Affiliation:
University of Toronto, Canada
*
Corresponding author: Lucan Way, Email: lucan.way@utoronto.ca
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Abstract

This article uses a comparison with Ukraine to investigate why protests against Lukashenka in 2020 failed to oust the Belarusian dictator. First, in contrast to his counterparts in Ukraine, Lukashenka successfully built new authoritarian economic and coercive institutions in the 1990s that raised the costs of opposition activity and reduced challengers’ access to business support. Second, Belarus has lacked a strong national identity that was critical to opposition success in Ukraine. In Ukraine, relatively powerful anti-Russian nationalism repeatedly motivated a core group of anti-incumbent activists and facilitated the opposition’s control over local power structures that supported protest activities at critical moments. In Belarus, weak national identity and consequent dearth of committed activists in national government institutions in the 1990s hampered efforts to challenge Lukashenka’s consolidation of authoritarian power. In addition, weaker national identity undermined the capacity of opposition forces to control local power structures that might have aided opposition protest.

Keywords

democratizationauthoritarianismBelarusian politicsLukashenkaprotests
Type
Special Issue Article
Information
Nationalities Papers , Volume 51 , Issue 4: Special Issue on Mass Mobilization in Belarus , July 2023 , pp. 787 - 802
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Association for the Study of Nationalities

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