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Validation of a Belgian Prediction Model for Patient Encounters at Football Mass Gatherings

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 September 2021

Kris Spaepen Open the ORCID record for Kris Spaepen [Opens in a new window] ,
Door Lauwaert ,
Leonard Kaufman ,
Winne AP Haenen  and
Ives Hubloue
Kris Spaepen*
Affiliation:
Research Group on Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Door Lauwaert
Affiliation:
Research Group on Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Leonard Kaufman
Affiliation:
Research Group on Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Winne AP Haenen
Affiliation:
Crisis Management at Federal Public Health Service, Brussels, Belgium
Ives Hubloue
Affiliation:
Research Group on Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
*
Correspondence: Kris Spaepen, RN MSc EMDM Research Group on Emergency and Disaster Medicine Vrije Universiteit Brussel Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy Laarbeeklaan 103, 1090 Brussels, Belgium E-mail: kris.spaepen@vub.be
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Abstract

Background:

To validate the Belgian Plan Risk Manifestations (PRIMA) model, actual patient presentation rates (PPRs) from Belgium’s largest football stadium were compared with predictions provided by existing models and the Belgian PRIMA model.

Methods:

Actual patient presentations gathered from 41 football games (2010-2019) played at the King Baudouin Stadium (Brussels, Belgium) were compared with predictions by existing models and the PRIMA model. All attendees who sought medical help from in-event health services (IEHS) in the stadium or called 1-1-2 within the closed perimeter around the stadium were included. Data were analyzed by ANOVA, Pearson correlation tests, and Wilcoxon singed-rank test.

Results:

A total of 1,630,549 people attended the matches, with 626 people needing first aid. Both the PRIMA and the Hartman model over-estimated the number of patient encounters for each occasion. The Arbon model under-estimated patient encounters for 9.75% (95% CI, 0.49-19.01) of the events. When comparing deviations in predictions between the PRIMA model to the other models, there was a significant difference in the mean deviation (Arbon: Z = −5.566, P <.001, r = −.61; Hartman: Z = −4.245, P <.001, r = .47).

Conclusion:

When comparing the predicted patient encounters, only the Arbon model under-predicted patient presentations, but the Hartman and the PRIMA models consistently over-predicted. Because of continuous over-prediction, the PRIMA model showed significant differences in mean deviation of predicted PPR. The results of this study suggest that the PRIMA model can be used during planning for domestic and international football matches played at the King Baudouin Stadium, but more data and further research are needed.

Keywords

disaster planning and responseEmergency Medical Servicesmass gatheringpatient presentationsprediction
Type
Original Research
Information
Prehospital and Disaster Medicine , Volume 36 , Issue 6 , December 2021 , pp. 724 - 729
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine

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