Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-v9fdk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-10-31T23:19:01.607Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Numerical Short-Term Solar Activity Forecasting

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2018

Huaning Wang
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yihua Yan
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Han He
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Xin Huang
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Xinghua Dai
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Xiaoshuai Zhu
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Zhanle Du
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Hui Zhao
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Yan Yan
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A20 Datun Road Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, China email: hnwang@bao.ac.cn
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

It is well known that the energy for solar eruptions comes from magnetic fields in solar active regions. Magnetic energy storage and dissipation are regarded as important physical processes in the solar corona. With incomplete theoretical modeling for eruptions in the solar atmosphere, activity forecasting is mainly supported with statistical models. Solar observations with high temporal and spatial resolution continuously from space well describe the evolution of activities in the solar atmosphere, and combined with three dimensional reconstruction of solar magnetic fields, makes numerical short-term (within hours to days) solar activity forecasting possible. In the current report, we propose the erupting frequency and main attack direction of solar eruptions as new forecasts and present the prospects for numerical short-term solar activity forecasting based on the magnetic topological framework in solar active regions.

Type
Contributed Papers
Copyright
Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018 

References

Amari, T., Canou, A. & Aly, J. J. 2014, Nature, 514, 465CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bobra, M. G. & Couvidat, S. 2015, ApJ, 798, 135Google Scholar
Chen, P. F. 2011 LRSP, 8, 1CGoogle Scholar
Cui, Y. M., Li, R., Zhang, L. Y., He, Y. L. & Wang, H. N. 2006, Sol. Phys., 237, 45CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Falconer, D. A., Moore, R. L. & Gary, G. A. 2003, JGR, 108, 1380CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jiang, C. W., Wu, S. T., Feng, X. S. & Hu, Q. 2016, NatCo, 7, 111522Google Scholar
Lau, Y. T. & Finn, J. M. 1990, ApJ, 350, 672Google Scholar
Liu, C., Deng, N., Wang, Jason T. L. & Wang, H. M. 2017, ApJ, 843, 104LCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Longcope, D. W.,2005, LRSP, 7, 2CGoogle Scholar
McIntosh, P. S. 1990, Sol. Phys., 125, 251Google Scholar
Priest, E. R. & Démoulin, P. 1995 JGR, 100, 23443Google Scholar
Priest, E. R., Bungey, T. N. & Titov, V. S. 1997, Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn., 84, 127Google Scholar
Reames, D. V., Barbier, L. M. & Ng, C. K. M. 1996, ApJ, 466, 473Google Scholar
Sun, X. D., Hoeksema, J. T., Liu, Y., Chen, Q. R. & Hayashi, K. J. 2012, ApJ, 757, 149Google Scholar
Sweet, P. A. 1958, in Electromagnetic Phenomena in Cosmical Physics, (Ed.) Lehnert, B. & Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U. K. 1958, IAUS, 6, 123Google Scholar
Wang, H. N. & Wang, J. X. 1996, A&A, 313, 285Google Scholar
Wang, H. N., Yan, Y. H. & Sakurai, T. 2001, Sol. Phys., 201, 323Google Scholar
Wang, H. N., Cui, Y. M., Li, R., Zhang, L. & He, H. 2008, AdSpR, 42, 1464Google Scholar
Wang, J. X., in Synoptic Solar Physics, eds Balasubramaniam, K. S., Harvey, J. W. & Rabin, D. M. 1998, ASPC, 140, 121Google Scholar
Yan, Y. H. & Sakurai, T. 2000, Sol. Phys., 195, 89Google Scholar
Yu, D., Huang, X., Wang, H. N. & Cui, Y. 2009, Sol. Phys., 255, 91Google Scholar
Zhao, H., Wang, J. X., Zhang, J. & Xiao, C. J. 2005, ChJAA, 5, 443Google Scholar
Zhao, H., Wang, J. X., Zhang, J. & Xiao, C. J. 2008, ChJAA, 8, 133Google Scholar