2 results
Riding the Orange Wave: Leadership, Values, Issues, and the 2011 Canadian Election
- Patrick Fournier, Fred Cutler, Stuart Soroka, Dietlind Stolle, Éric Bélanger
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- Journal:
- Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique / Volume 46 / Issue 4 / December 2013
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 10 January 2014, pp. 863-897
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Abstract. The results of the 2011 Canadian federal election were surprising. What accounts for the dramatic and largely unexpected shift in electoral fortunes? Most importantly, what accounts for the sudden leap in popularity of the New Democratic Party, particularly in Quebec? The aftermath of election day produced no lack of potential explanations. Pundits, politicians, and political scientists have suggested many. This paper examines the empirical validity of various explanations swirling about the 2011 election, especially regarding the “orange surge.” The analysis relies upon the 2011 Canadian Election Study and the content of news media coverage. It concludes that the most important factors behind the orange wave were the image gap between Jack Layton and the other party leaders, as well as the proximity between the NDP's values and issue positions and those of many Quebeckers.
Résumé. Le résultat de l'élection fédérale canadienne de 2011 a été surprenant. Comment expliquer les renversements dramatiques et largement inattendus dans les appuis aux partis politiques? Surtout, comment expliquer le bond soudain de popularité du Nouveau parti démocratique, particulièrement au Québec? Plusieurs explications potentielles ont été suggérées par les commentateurs, les politiciens et les politologues au lendemain de l'élection. Cet article examine la validité empirique de nombreuses explications entourant l'élection de 2011, notamment celles portant sur la « vague orange ». L'analyse repose sur l'Étude électorale canadienne de 2011 ainsi que sur le contenu de la couverture médiatique. Elle indique que les facteurs les plus importants à l'origine de la vague orange ont été l'écart entre l'image de Jack Layton et celle des autres chefs de partis, de même que la proximité entre le NPD et plusieurs Québécois quant aux valeurs et aux enjeux.
Carbon offsets for conservation and development in Indonesia?
- Thomas P. Tomich, Hubert de Foresta, Rona Dennis, Quirine Ketterings, Daniel Murdiyarso, Cheryl Palm, Fred Stolle, Suyanto, Meine van Noordwijk
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- Journal:
- American Journal of Alternative Agriculture / Volume 17 / Issue 3 / September 2002
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 30 October 2009, pp. 125-137
- Print publication:
- September 2002
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The logic of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other such ‘carbon (C) offsets’ rests on the notion that the opportunity cost of reducing C emissions is lower in developing countries, creating opportunities for mutually beneficial C trading. While the CDM may offer significant gross financial benefits, there has been little analysis of the opportunity costs of foregone resource exploitation and development opportunities. In addition to assessing the potential for net benefits, this paper also considers the practical implications for design and implementation of C offsets for forest conservation and agroforestation in Indonesia. Virtually nothing is known about these administrative factors, and their associated costs, which can also play a decisive role in feasibility of C offset schemes. Data are from field studies in the lowlands of the Indonesian island of Sumatra, where forests and derived land uses are broadly representative of the lowland humid tropical rainforest systems of insular South-East Asia. These data are the basis for assessing the trade-offs between natural forest protection for C sequestration and conversion to other land uses to meet national development objectives that directly affect people's livelihoods. Carbon stocks are analyzed in terms of ‘time-averaged’ C, an indicator developed for this project. Opportunity costs of land-use alternatives are estimated using standard techniques for economic assessment of investment projects in developing countries. The study finds that imputed timber values are a significant share of the opportunity costs of forest conservation, even for conservative estimates of timber prices. The question of compensating for these foregone values raises complex questions regarding the political economy of Indonesia, since property rights over these resources are highly contentious. These controversies over property rights are also examined within the context of recurrent smoke pollution from land fires in Indonesia, that (among other problems) contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. This smoke is symptomatic of deeper political and institutional problems that raise questions about the permanence of C storage through land-use practices in Indonesia. In comparison to forest conservation, C offsets through agroforestation seem more feasible in Indonesia because property rights over timber from planted trees would be easier to establish and enforce than property rights over timber from natural forests. Although results in this paper look promising, there is still much to be learned about implementation costs, even for the ‘easier’ case of agroforestation.