3 results
OP07 Dealing With Uncertainty In Early Health Technology Assessment: An Exploration Of Methods For Decision-Making Under Deep Uncertainty
- Mirre Scholte, Vincent Marchau, Jan Kwakkel, Maroeska Rovers, Janneke Grutters
-
- Journal:
- International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care / Volume 38 / Issue S1 / December 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 23 December 2022, pp. S3-S4
-
- Article
-
- You have access Access
- Export citation
-
Introduction
In early stages, the consequences of innovations are often unknown or deeply uncertain. This complicates health economic modelling. The field of decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) uses exploratory modelling (EM) to help decision-makers make sound decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty (i.e., when stakeholders do not know, or cannot agree on, the system model, the probability distributions to place over the inputs to these models, which consequences to consider, and their relative importance). The aim of this research was to evaluate the potential of EM for the early evaluation of health technologies.
MethodsEM and early health economic modelling (EHEM) were applied to an early evaluation of minimally invasive surgery (MIS) for acute intracerebral hemorrhage, and were compared to derive differences, merits, and drawbacks of EM.
ResultsThe approaches fundamentally differ in the way uncertainty is handled. Where in EHEM the focus is on the value of the technology, while accounting for the uncertainty, EM focuses on the uncertainty. EHEM aims to assess whether the innovative strategy is potentially cost-effective, often using assumptions. EM on the other hand focuses on finding robust strategies (i.e., strategies that give relatively good outcomes over a wide range of plausible futures). This was also reflected in our case study. For example, EHEM provided cost-effectiveness thresholds for MIS effectiveness, assuming fixed MIS costs. EM showed that a strategy with a population in which most patients had severe intracerebral hemorrhage was most robust, regardless of MIS effectiveness, complications, and costs.
ConclusionsEM seems most suited in the very early phases of innovation (i.e., when a problem is signaled). Here, it can explore the robustness of many potential strategies under uncertainty. When potential strategies are selected, EHEM seems useful to optimize these strategies. Yet, EM methods are complex and might only be fully effective when a policy window exists that facilitates flexible research and adoption strategies.
Contributor affiliations
-
- By Frank Andrasik, Melissa R. Andrews, Ana Inés Ansaldo, Evangelos G. Antzoulatos, Lianhua Bai, Ellen Barrett, Linamara Battistella, Nicolas Bayle, Michael S. Beattie, Peter J. Beek, Serafin Beer, Heinrich Binder, Claire Bindschaedler, Sarah Blanton, Tasia Bobish, Michael L. Boninger, Joseph F. Bonner, Chadwick B. Boulay, Vanessa S. Boyce, Anna-Katharine Brem, Jacqueline C. Bresnahan, Floor E. Buma, Mary Bartlett Bunge, John H. Byrne, Jeffrey R. Capadona, Stefano F. Cappa, Diana D. Cardenas, Leeanne M. Carey, S. Thomas Carmichael, Glauco A. P. Caurin, Pablo Celnik, Kimberly M. Christian, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo G. Cohen, Adriana B. Conforto, Rory A. Cooper, Rosemarie Cooper, Steven C. Cramer, Armin Curt, Mark D’Esposito, Matthew B. Dalva, Gavriel David, Brandon Delia, Wenbin Deng, Volker Dietz, Bruce H. Dobkin, Marco Domeniconi, Edith Durand, Tracey Vause Earland, Georg Ebersbach, Jonathan J. Evans, James W. Fawcett, Uri Feintuch, Toby A. Ferguson, Marie T. Filbin, Diasinou Fioravante, Itzhak Fischer, Agnes Floel, Herta Flor, Karim Fouad, Richard S. J. Frackowiak, Peter H. Gorman, Thomas W. Gould, Jean-Michel Gracies, Amparo Gutierrez, Kurt Haas, C.D. Hall, Hans-Peter Hartung, Zhigang He, Jordan Hecker, Susan J. Herdman, Seth Herman, Leigh R. Hochberg, Ahmet Höke, Fay B. Horak, Jared C. Horvath, Richard L. Huganir, Friedhelm C. Hummel, Beata Jarosiewicz, Frances E. Jensen, Michael Jöbges, Larry M. Jordan, Jon H. Kaas, Andres M. Kanner, Noomi Katz, Matthew S. Kayser, Annmarie Kelleher, Gerd Kempermann, Timothy E. Kennedy, Jürg Kesselring, Fary Khan, Rachel Kizony, Jeffery D. Kocsis, Boudewijn J. Kollen, Hubertus Köller, John W. Krakauer, Hermano I. Krebs, Gert Kwakkel, Bradley Lang, Catherine E. Lang, Helmar C. Lehmann, Angelo C. Lepore, Glenn S. Le Prell, Mindy F. Levin, Joel M. Levine, David A. Low, Marilyn MacKay-Lyons, Jeffrey D. Macklis, Margaret Mak, Francine Malouin, William C. Mann, Paul D. Marasco, Christopher J. Mathias, Laura McClure, Jan Mehrholz, Lorne M. Mendell, Robert H. Miller, Carol Milligan, Beth Mineo, Simon W. Moore, Jennifer Morgan, Charbel E-H. Moussa, Martin Munz, Randolph J. Nudo, Joseph J. Pancrazio, Theresa Pape, Alvaro Pascual-Leone, Kristin M. Pearson-Fuhrhop, P. Hunter Peckham, Tamara L. Pelleshi, Catherine Verrier Piersol, Thomas Platz, Marcus Pohl, Dejan B. Popović, Andrew M. Poulos, Maulik Purohit, Hui-Xin Qi, Debbie Rand, Mahendra S. Rao, Josef P. Rauschecker, Aimee Reiss, Carol L. Richards, Keith M. Robinson, Melvyn Roerdink, John C. Rosenbek, Serge Rossignol, Edward S. Ruthazer, Arash Sahraie, Krishnankutty Sathian, Marc H. Schieber, Brian J. Schmidt, Michael E. Selzer, Mijail D. Serruya, Himanshu Sharma, Michael Shifman, Jerry Silver, Thomas Sinkjær, George M. Smith, Young-Jin Son, Tim Spencer, John D. Steeves, Oswald Steward, Sheela Stuart, Austin J. Sumner, Chin Lik Tan, Robert W. Teasell, Gareth Thomas, Aiko K. Thompson, Richard F. Thompson, Wesley J. Thompson, Erika Timar, Ceri T. Trevethan, Christopher Trimby, Gary R. Turner, Mark H. Tuszynski, Erna A. van Niekerk, Ricardo Viana, Difei Wang, Anthony B. Ward, Nick S. Ward, Stephen G. Waxman, Patrice L. Weiss, Jörg Wissel, Steven L. Wolf, Jonathan R. Wolpaw, Sharon Wood-Dauphinee, Ross D. Zafonte, Binhai Zheng, Richard D. Zorowitz
- Edited by Michael Selzer, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo Cohen, Gert Kwakkel, Robert Miller, Case Western Reserve University, Ohio
-
- Book:
- Textbook of Neural Repair and Rehabilitation
- Published online:
- 05 May 2014
- Print publication:
- 24 April 2014, pp ix-xvi
-
- Chapter
- Export citation
Contributor affiliations
-
- By Frank Andrasik, Melissa R. Andrews, Ana Inés Ansaldo, Evangelos G. Antzoulatos, Lianhua Bai, Ellen Barrett, Linamara Battistella, Nicolas Bayle, Michael S. Beattie, Peter J. Beek, Serafin Beer, Heinrich Binder, Claire Bindschaedler, Sarah Blanton, Tasia Bobish, Michael L. Boninger, Joseph F. Bonner, Chadwick B. Boulay, Vanessa S. Boyce, Anna-Katharine Brem, Jacqueline C. Bresnahan, Floor E. Buma, Mary Bartlett Bunge, John H. Byrne, Jeffrey R. Capadona, Stefano F. Cappa, Diana D. Cardenas, Leeanne M. Carey, S. Thomas Carmichael, Glauco A. P. Caurin, Pablo Celnik, Kimberly M. Christian, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo G. Cohen, Adriana B. Conforto, Rory A. Cooper, Rosemarie Cooper, Steven C. Cramer, Armin Curt, Mark D’Esposito, Matthew B. Dalva, Gavriel David, Brandon Delia, Wenbin Deng, Volker Dietz, Bruce H. Dobkin, Marco Domeniconi, Edith Durand, Tracey Vause Earland, Georg Ebersbach, Jonathan J. Evans, James W. Fawcett, Uri Feintuch, Toby A. Ferguson, Marie T. Filbin, Diasinou Fioravante, Itzhak Fischer, Agnes Floel, Herta Flor, Karim Fouad, Richard S. J. Frackowiak, Peter H. Gorman, Thomas W. Gould, Jean-Michel Gracies, Amparo Gutierrez, Kurt Haas, C.D. Hall, Hans-Peter Hartung, Zhigang He, Jordan Hecker, Susan J. Herdman, Seth Herman, Leigh R. Hochberg, Ahmet Höke, Fay B. Horak, Jared C. Horvath, Richard L. Huganir, Friedhelm C. Hummel, Beata Jarosiewicz, Frances E. Jensen, Michael Jöbges, Larry M. Jordan, Jon H. Kaas, Andres M. Kanner, Noomi Katz, Matthew S. Kayser, Annmarie Kelleher, Gerd Kempermann, Timothy E. Kennedy, Jürg Kesselring, Fary Khan, Rachel Kizony, Jeffery D. Kocsis, Boudewijn J. Kollen, Hubertus Köller, John W. Krakauer, Hermano I. Krebs, Gert Kwakkel, Bradley Lang, Catherine E. Lang, Helmar C. Lehmann, Angelo C. Lepore, Glenn S. Le Prell, Mindy F. Levin, Joel M. Levine, David A. Low, Marilyn MacKay-Lyons, Jeffrey D. Macklis, Margaret Mak, Francine Malouin, William C. Mann, Paul D. Marasco, Christopher J. Mathias, Laura McClure, Jan Mehrholz, Lorne M. Mendell, Robert H. Miller, Carol Milligan, Beth Mineo, Simon W. Moore, Jennifer Morgan, Charbel E-H. Moussa, Martin Munz, Randolph J. Nudo, Joseph J. Pancrazio, Theresa Pape, Alvaro Pascual-Leone, Kristin M. Pearson-Fuhrhop, P. Hunter Peckham, Tamara L. Pelleshi, Catherine Verrier Piersol, Thomas Platz, Marcus Pohl, Dejan B. Popović, Andrew M. Poulos, Maulik Purohit, Hui-Xin Qi, Debbie Rand, Mahendra S. Rao, Josef P. Rauschecker, Aimee Reiss, Carol L. Richards, Keith M. Robinson, Melvyn Roerdink, John C. Rosenbek, Serge Rossignol, Edward S. Ruthazer, Arash Sahraie, Krishnankutty Sathian, Marc H. Schieber, Brian J. Schmidt, Michael E. Selzer, Mijail D. Serruya, Himanshu Sharma, Michael Shifman, Jerry Silver, Thomas Sinkjær, George M. Smith, Young-Jin Son, Tim Spencer, John D. Steeves, Oswald Steward, Sheela Stuart, Austin J. Sumner, Chin Lik Tan, Robert W. Teasell, Gareth Thomas, Aiko K. Thompson, Richard F. Thompson, Wesley J. Thompson, Erika Timar, Ceri T. Trevethan, Christopher Trimby, Gary R. Turner, Mark H. Tuszynski, Erna A. van Niekerk, Ricardo Viana, Difei Wang, Anthony B. Ward, Nick S. Ward, Stephen G. Waxman, Patrice L. Weiss, Jörg Wissel, Steven L. Wolf, Jonathan R. Wolpaw, Sharon Wood-Dauphinee, Ross D. Zafonte, Binhai Zheng, Richard D. Zorowitz
- Edited by Michael E. Selzer, Stephanie Clarke, Leonardo G. Cohen, Gert Kwakkel, Robert H. Miller, Case Western Reserve University, Ohio
-
- Book:
- Textbook of Neural Repair and Rehabilitation
- Published online:
- 05 June 2014
- Print publication:
- 24 April 2014, pp ix-xvi
-
- Chapter
- Export citation