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Chapter 18 - Urban Energy Systems
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- By Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Xuemei Bai, Australian National University, Thomas Buettner, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Shobhakar Dhakal, Global Carbon Project and National Institute for Environmental Studies, David J. Fisk, Imperial College London, Toshiaki Ichinose, National Institute for Environmental Studies, James E. Keirstead, Imperial College London, Gerd Sammer, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, David Satterthwaite, International Institute for Environment and Development, Niels B. Schulz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Imperial College, Nilay Shah, Imperial College London, Julia Steinberger, The Institute of Social Ecology, Austria and University of Leeds, Helga Weisz, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Gilbert Ahamer, University of Graz, Timothy Baynes, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Daniel Curtis, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Michael Doherty, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Nick Eyre, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Junichi Fujino, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Keisuke Hanaki, University of Tokyo, Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Shinji Kaneko, Hiroshima University, Manfred Lenzen, University of Sydney, Jacqui Meyers, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hitomi Nakanishi, University of Canberra, Victoria Novikova, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Krishnan S. Rajan, International Institute of Information Technology, Seongwon Seo, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Ram M. Shrestha, Asian Institute of Technology, Priyadarshi R. Shukla, Indian Institute of Management, Alice Sverdlik, International Institute for Environment and Development, Jayant Sathaye, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 1307-1400
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Summary
Executive Summary
More than 50% of the global population already lives in urban settlements and urban areas are projected to absorb almost all the global population growth to 2050, amounting to some additional three billion people. Over the next decades the increase in rural population in many developing countries will be overshadowed by population flows to cities. Rural populations globally are expected to peak at a level of 3.5 billion people by around 2020 and decline thereafter, albeit with heterogeneous regional trends. This adds urgency in addressing rural energy access, but our common future will be predominantly urban. Most of urban growth will continue to occur in small-to medium-sized urban centers. Growth in these smaller cities poses serious policy challenges, especially in the developing world. In small cities, data and information to guide policy are largely absent, local resources to tackle development challenges are limited, and governance and institutional capacities are weak, requiring serious efforts in capacity building, novel applications of remote sensing, information, and decision support techniques, and new institutional partnerships. While ‘megacities’ with more than 10 million inhabitants have distinctive challenges, their contribution to global urban growth will remain comparatively small.
Energy-wise, the world is already predominantly urban. This assessment estimates that between 60–80% of final energy use globally is urban, with a central estimate of 75%. Applying national energy (or GHG inventory) reporting formats to the urban scale and to urban administrative boundaries is often referred to as a ‘production’ accounting approach and underlies the above GEA estimate.
26 - Climate policy assessment using the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model
- from Part IV - Policy design and decisionmaking under uncertainty
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- By Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies Onogawa, Japan, Yuzuru Matsuoka, Kyoto University Japan, Toshihiko Masui, National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan, Kiyoshi Takahashi, National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan, Junichi Fijino, National Institute for Environmental Studies Japan, Yasuaki Hijioka, National Institute for Environmental Studies Onogawa, Japan
- Edited by Michael E. Schlesinger, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Haroon S. Kheshgi, Joel Smith, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, John M. Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Tom Wilson, Charles Kolstad, University of California, Santa Barbara
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- Book:
- Human-Induced Climate Change
- Published online:
- 06 December 2010
- Print publication:
- 11 October 2007, pp 314-327
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Summary
Introduction
It is predicted that global climate change will have significant impacts on the society and economy of the Asia–Pacific region, and that the adoption of measures to tackle global climate change will impose a large economic burden on the region. Also, if the Asia–Pacific region fails to adopt such countermeasures, it has been estimated that its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) will increase to over 50% of total global emissions by 2100. To respond to such a serious and long-term threat, it is critical to establish communication and evaluation tools for policymakers and scientists in the region. The Integrated Assessment Model provides a convenient framework for combining knowledge from a wide range of disciplines, and is one of the most effective tools to increase the interaction among groups.
The Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is one of the most frequently used models in the Asia–Pacific region (Kainuma et al., 2003; Shukla et al., 2004). The distinctive features of AIM are: (1) it involves Asian country teams from Japan, China, India, Korea, Thailand, and so on; (2) it has detailed description of technologies; and (3) it uses information from a detailed geographic information system to evaluate and present the distribution of impacts at local and global levels. Besides preparing country models for evaluation at the state and national level, we have also developed global models to analyze international economic relationships and climate impacts in order to evaluate policy options from a global viewpoint.