Introduction

Populations around the world are ageing rapidly, and it is the less developed countries that are experiencing the most dramatic changes. Although this is both a cause for celebration and a success story, it also presents many challenges and opportunities. While developed countries have had the time and infrastructure to deal with population ageing, developing countries have had shorter periods to adjust and establish mechanisms and policies necessary to meet the needs of their rapidly growing and ageing populations (Beard et al, 2012). This chapter examines the economic, social and health implications of the rapidly shifting demographics in Tunisia, a small middle-income country of the Arab Maghreb region. Tunisia lies on the northern-most tip of the African shore, its economy is primarily dependent on industry, agriculture and services, and it has one of the highest per capita GDP in Africa and the Middle East (US$4,286, Purchasing Power Parity US$9,707 in 2012). Yet, resources are severely constrained, and all the more so in the wake of the country's revolution that began in December 2010 and ended in January 2011. The uprising constituted the most dramatic wave of social and political unrest in the country, and was primarily precipitated by the high unemployment rate, poor living conditions, corruption and lack of political freedom. The revolution was the first and the trigger for the other Arab Spring waves, and resulted in scores of deaths and injuries, ultimately leading to the democratisation of the country and to political reform. Tunisia is still recovering from the consequences of its revolution, and unprecedented economic and social challenges continue to prevail.

Demographic indicators

Compared to other Arab countries, Tunisia is in an advanced stage of demographic transition and is expected to show faster ageing trends by 2050. The proportion of the older population, defined as individuals aged 60+, has grown dramatically since the country's independence in 1956. With only 5.9 per cent of the population being in the older age group in the 1980s, this proportion is currently estimated at 9.9 per cent (see Table 16.1). In 2040, around one in five will be in this older age bracket (22.8 per cent).