There have been many shocks in American electoral history but probably none more shocking than the election of Donald Trump in November 2016. Hardly any pollsters ever thought he could win; when he did it was by a mere 80,000 votes spread across the three crucial ‘swing states’ of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania; and as if to rub salt into Democratic wounds, he didn't even win the majority of the votes cast across the country as a whole. Yet, after one of the more bruising campaigns in recent times, he secured the White House against one of the most experienced US politicians of modern times. Inspired in part by what had earlier happened in the UK when the British voted to leave the European Union – the first great shock of 2016 – Trump the outsider managed to tap into a vein of discontent among millions of working-class Americans who either felt that their position in society was under threat from changes at home and abroad,2or found it difficult to connect with an increasingly liberal Democratic Party whose candidate only rarely seemed to speak to their concerns or connect with their fears. Nor did Trump ignore other important sources of support. Indeed, as a result of a very well organized campaign which left no stone unturned, he scored very heavily among three other significant constituencies: the evangelical right (80 per cent of whom voted for him), the US military (who voted 2-to-1 in his favour), and the better off and the wealthy who were attracted to his banner by promises of tax breaks and deregulation. With enough additional support coming from Latinos and even women (and Clinton losing some ground among African-Americans, Latino and younger voters) it turned out to be a winning combination.

How and why Trump won an election he was predicted to lose will no doubt be debated for years to come. But one thing became clear even as the dust began to settle: that a political earthquake had occurred which was bound to have huge consequences both for the United States and for the rest of the world.