Box 12.1: Theories of public opinion and policy making

Policy ‘feedback’

Social and political institutions and governmental policies provide feedback effects to voters (Pierson, 1993), which helps them to navigate their world. Once in place, policies have ‘increasing returns’, leading to ‘path dependence’ in policy (Pierson, 2000). Policy legacies matter. If change occurs, it intends to be incremental – which helps explain ‘incrementalism’ in policy making.

Institutional ‘logics’

Welfare institutions and welfare attitudes are inextricably linked, implying that welfare states have a tendency to produce and reproduce their own legitimacy (Larsen, 2006). This is made particularly evident from a comparative perspective. For instance, there is high support for social rights and welfare institutions in Nordic countries like Sweden compared to liberal countries like the USA.

Thermostat’ model

The ‘thermostatic model’ (Wlezien, 1995) suggests if trends in public opinion change – that is, the ‘temperature’ set by the ‘thermostat’ goes up or down – the government will respond to that change and shift policy position again. The public sends signals to policy makers in the form of preferences for ‘more’ or ‘less’ spending, as it reacts to changes in policy. The public adjusts or changes its preferences, wants less spending after a period when welfare spending has increased, and vice versa.

‘Weather vane’ model

This model suggests there is scope for political leadership in policy making (Hills, 2002; Curtice, 2010). If the public are persuaded of the merits of governmental actions it may align its views with the direction set by policy makers.