At the 14th ECSSR Annual Energy Conference in Abu Dhabi in 2008, I said that there was a global resurgence in demand for nuclear power, pointing to plans for expansion in a great many countries. The economic boom in Asia called for much more base-load electricity, and awareness was growing that nuclear could offer this without producing the CO2 emissions that contribute to global warming. The reliability of nuclear power had steadily improved, with the availability of plants that achieve more than 90 percent reliability, compared to some 70 percent in the 1970s.

A year ago the picture would have been about the same, and essentially it is still true today. However, with some humility we should perhaps note that while we can and should foresee many factors that affect the world energy market – including population increase, oil and gas resource availability, etc. – there are others that are unexpected. Who would have predicted the recent financial crises and economic slowdowns that have reduced demand? Or the new technique of ‘fracking’ to extract shale gas and oil? Or the Arab spring? Or Fukushima?

Following the accident at Fukushima in Japan, a natural first question is whether it has significantly affected the outlook and future for nuclear power worldwide, and in the Gulf countries in particular. The brief answer to that question is no: with a few notable exceptions the outlook of governments globally has hardly changed.