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13 - The Rumsfeld Matrix

Degrees of Knowledge

from Part II - The Present

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 November 2021

R. Saravanan
Affiliation:
Texas A & M University
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Summary

The Rumsfeld knowledge matrix – which spans the knowledge categories “known knowns,” “known unknowns,” and “unknown unknowns” – is used to illustrate the process of model improvement. Two new knowledge subcategories – “poorly known unknowns” and “well-known unknowns” – are introduced to distinguish between accuracy of parameterizations. A distinction is made between “downstream benefits” of parameterizations, which improve prediction skill, and “upstream benefits,” which improve understanding of the phenomenon being parameterized but not necessarily the prediction skill. Since new or improved parameterizations add to the complexity of models, it may be important to distinguish between essential and nonessential complexity. The fourth knowledge category in the Rumsfeld matrix is “unknown knowns” or willful ignorance, which can be used to describe contrarian views on climate change. Contrarians dismiss climate models for their limitations, but typically only offer alternatives born of unconstrained ideation.

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Information
The Climate Demon
Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction
, pp. 193 - 211
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

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  • The Rumsfeld Matrix
  • R. Saravanan, Texas A & M University
  • Book: The Climate Demon
  • Online publication: 02 November 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009039604.017
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  • The Rumsfeld Matrix
  • R. Saravanan, Texas A & M University
  • Book: The Climate Demon
  • Online publication: 02 November 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009039604.017
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • The Rumsfeld Matrix
  • R. Saravanan, Texas A & M University
  • Book: The Climate Demon
  • Online publication: 02 November 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009039604.017
Available formats
×