A comparative analysis of the lockdown and unlock policies on the COVID-19 situation in India

11 August 2020, Version 1
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed by Cambridge University Press at the time of posting.

Abstract

India implemented a ‘complete national lock down’ (which lasted 68 days) in an attempt to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2. This study provides a comparative analysis of the COVID-19 situation in India during the lockdown and first 68 days of the unlock phase. The study finds that the test positivity rate and incremental increase in cases/testing rate has nearly doubled in the unlock phase indicating a much higher spread of infection; but speed of testing has decreased significantly, in spite of use of rapid antigen testing. Improper implementation of testing protocol by using the rapid test as an alternate to the RT-PCR test (gold standard) is resulting in a serious underestimation of the actual cases. Unless urgent measures are taken to rectify the current situation, the data from India will be remain an artifact of a ‘created’ situation rather than a reflection of the ‘actual’ situation.

Keywords

Incremental analysis
SARS-CoV-2
RT-PCR
Rapid antigen detection test
longitudinal observational study
testing rates
testing strategies

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