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12 - The Hansen Paradox

The Red Queen’s Race of Climate Modeling

from Part II - The Present

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 November 2021

R. Saravanan
Affiliation:
Texas A & M University
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Summary

Old climate models are often evaluated on whether they made correct predictions of global warming. But, if the old models were missing processes that we know now to be important, any correctness of their predictions would have to be attributed to a fortuitous compensation of errors, creating a paradoxical situation. Climate models are also tested for falsifiability by using them to predict the impact of short-term events like volcanic eruptions. But climate models do not exhibit the numeric convergence to a unique solution characteristic of small-scale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models, like the ones that simulate flow over a wing. Compensating errors may obscure the convergence of individual components of a climate model. Lack of convergence suggests that climate modeling is facing a reducibility barrier, or perhaps even a reducibility limit.

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Chapter
Information
The Climate Demon
Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction
, pp. 178 - 192
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

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  • The Hansen Paradox
  • R. Saravanan, Texas A & M University
  • Book: The Climate Demon
  • Online publication: 02 November 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009039604.016
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  • The Hansen Paradox
  • R. Saravanan, Texas A & M University
  • Book: The Climate Demon
  • Online publication: 02 November 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009039604.016
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • The Hansen Paradox
  • R. Saravanan, Texas A & M University
  • Book: The Climate Demon
  • Online publication: 02 November 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009039604.016
Available formats
×