The result of South Africa’s first democratic election in 1994 had something in common with a successful children’s birthday party. It was clear from the beginning whose day it was and where the bulk of the spoils would go, but the failure of the African National Congress (ANC) to win a two-thirds majority consoled the others. And those guests who might have spoiled the occasion with tears and tantrums were rewarded too, with control of provincial parliaments in Kwa-Zulu-Natal and the Western Cape, as well as positions in a government of national unity. These factors helped to make the 1994 election an occasion for general, not just partisan, rejoicing.

Divorced from the euphoria and sense of relief that attended the 1994 poll and robbed of any uncertainty about the outcome, observers of 1999’s election have had to work much harder to read its significance.