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LIFE HISTORIES OFFER A CLUE TO THE FUTURE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE ON CORAL REEFS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2013

L. YAKOB  and
P. J. MUMBY
L. YAKOB*
Affiliation:
School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia
P. J. MUMBY
Affiliation:
School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
*
✉laith.yakob@uq.edu.au
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Abstract

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Increased frequency and severity of stressors associated with climate change are drastically altering ecosystems. Caribbean coral reefs differ markedly from just 30 years ago, with much restructuring attributable to infectious disease outbreaks. Using a classic epidemiological approach, we demonstrate how density-dependent demographic rates serve as a mechanism for intrinsic coral resilience to population perturbations arising from disturbances such as disease. We explore the impact of allowing infection status to influence demographic rates and ascertain outbreak thresholds that are corroborated by epizootic patterns observed in the field. We discuss how our threshold calculations may provide metrics of coral epizootic early warning systems. Integrating our infection model with equations describing the interspecific competition for space between coral and macroalgae, we provide new mechanistic understanding of the influence that coral life history dynamism and infectious disease have on the changing face of these threatened ecosystems.

Keywords

transmission dynamicsearly warning systemspopulation dynamics

MSC classification

Secondary: 92D25: Population dynamics (general)
Type
Research Article
Information
The ANZIAM Journal , Volume 54 , Issue 1-2 , October 2012 , pp. 64 - 73
Copyright
Copyright ©2013 Australian Mathematical Society 

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