The interval in the history of the Canadian balance of payments to be dealt with in this paper is a short one. Even so, it is well to emphasize at the outset that limitations of time, the unusual complexities of the period, and the fact that it is still too recent to be viewed in its true perspective, make it impossible to do much more than a reconnaissance survey, in the hope that this will enable one at least to trace and identify the principal factors involved if not to appraise them finally.

Time limitations notwithstanding, since this is the only session devoted to the balance of payments, it is appropriate to recall that Canada has recently passed the half-century milestone in balance of payments statistics. Undoubtedly this is a record for an unbroken series of balance of payments estimates. It is of course quite true that this is not a uniform series; there are three distinct sets of estimates which are neither identical in quality nor in aim. Nevertheless they are sufficiently complete and conformable to give us a fairly uninterrupted view of the main developments in the balance of payments. The gradual evolution of the estimates from a purely private effort undertaken to test theoretical assumptions down to an accepted instrument of official policy is a story in which Canadians can justly take some pride.