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Vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise of the 35th biodiversity hotspot, the Forests of East Australia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2015

C. BELLARD ,
C. LECLERC ,
B. D. HOFFMANN  and
F. COURCHAMP
C. BELLARD*
Affiliation:
Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Universite Paris-Sud, F-91405 Orsay Cedex, France Current address: Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Division Biosciences, Centre for Biodiversity, Environment and Research, University College London, London, UK
C. LECLERC
Affiliation:
Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Universite Paris-Sud, F-91405 Orsay Cedex, France
B. D. HOFFMANN
Affiliation:
CSIRO, Land and Water Flagship, Tropical Ecosystems Research Centre, PMB 44, Winnellie, Northern Territory 0822, Australia
F. COURCHAMP
Affiliation:
Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Universite Paris-Sud, F-91405 Orsay Cedex, France Current address: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Center for Tropical Research, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
*
*Correspondence: Dr Celine Bellard e-mail: celine.bellard@u-psud.fr
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Summary

There is an urgent need to understand how climate change, including sea-level rise, is likely to threaten biodiversity and cause secondary effects, such as agro-ecosystem alteration and human displacement. The consequences of climate change, and the resulting sea-level rise within the Forests of East Australia biodiversity hotspot, were modelled and assessed for the 2070–2099 period. Climate change effects were predicted to affect c. 100000 km2, and a rise in sea level an area of 860 km2; this could potentially lead to the displacement of 20600 inhabitants. The two threats were projected to mainly affect natural and agricultural areas. The greatest conservation benefits would be obtained by either maintaining or increasing the conservation status of areas in the northern (Wet Tropics) or southern (Sydney Basin) extremities of the hotspot, as they constitute about half of the area predicted to be affected by climate change, and both areas harbour high species richness. Increasing the connectivity of protected areas for Wet Tropics and Sydney Basin species to enable them to move into new habitat areas is also important. This study provides a basis for future research on the effects on local biodiversity and agriculture.

Keywords

Australiabiodiversity hotspotsclimate changeconservationland usesea-level rise

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Type
Papers
Information
Environmental Conservation , Volume 43 , Issue 1 , March 2016 , pp. 79 - 89
Copyright
Copyright © Foundation for Environmental Conservation 2015 

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