Skip to main content
×
×
Home

Control of varicella in the post-vaccination era in Australia: a model-based assessment of catch-up and infant vaccination strategies for the future

  • Z. GAO (a1), J. G. WOOD (a1), H. F. GIDDING (a1) (a2), A. T. NEWALL (a1), R. I. MENZIES (a2) (a3), H. WANG (a2), P. B. McINTYRE (a2) (a3) and C. R. MACINTYRE (a1) (a2)...
  • Please note a correction has been issued for this article.
Summary

In Australia, varicella vaccine was universally funded in late 2005 as a single dose at 18 months. A school-based catch-up programme for children aged 10–13 years without a history of infection or vaccination was funded until 2015, when those eligible for universal infant vaccination would have reached the age of high school entry. This study projects the impact of discontinuing catch-up vaccination on varicella and zoster incidence and morbidity using a transmission dynamic model, in comparison with alternative policy options, including two-dose strategies. At current vaccine coverage (83% at 2 years and 90% at 5 years), ceasing the adolescent catch-up programme in 2015 was projected to increase varicella-associated morbidity between 2035 and 2050 by 39%. Although two-dose infant programmes had the lowest estimated varicella morbidity, the incremental benefit from the second dose fell by 70% if first dose coverage increased from 83% to 95% by age 24 months. Overall zoster morbidity was predicted to rise after vaccination, but differences between strategies were small. Our results suggest that feasibility of one-dose coverage approaching 95% is an important consideration in estimating incremental benefit from a second dose of varicella vaccine.

Copyright
Corresponding author
* Author for correspondence: Dr J. Wood, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, High Street, Kensington, UNSW Sydney 2052, Australia. (Email: James.Wood@unsw.edu.au)
References
Hide All
1. Heywood, A, et al. Varicella and herpes zoster hospitalizations before and after implementation of one-dose varicella vaccination in Australia: an ecological study. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2014; 92: 593604.
2. Marin, M, Meissner, HC, Seward, JF. Varicella prevention in the United States: a review of successes and challenges. Pediatrics 2008; 122: e744751.
3. Streng, A, et al. Varicella routine vaccination and the effects on varicella epidemiology – results from the Bavarian Varicella Surveillance Project (BaVariPro), 2006–2011. BMC Infectious Diseases 2013; 13: 303.
4. Waye, A, Jacobs, P, Tan, B. The impact of the universal infant varicella immunization strategy on Canadian varicella-related hospitalization rates. Vaccine 2013; 31: 47444748.
5. Sadzot-Delvaux, C, et al. Varicella vaccination in Japan, South Korea, and Europe. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2008; 197 (Suppl. 2): S185190.
6. Brisson, M, et al. Analysis of varicella vaccine breakthrough rates: implications for the effectiveness of immunisation programmes. Vaccine 2000; 18: 27752778.
7. Lopez, AS, et al. One dose of varicella vaccine does not prevent school outbreaks: is it time for a second dose? Pediatrics 2006; 117: e10701077.
8. Michalik, DE, et al. Primary vaccine failure after 1 dose of varicella vaccine in healthy children. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2008; 197: 944949.
9. Brisson, M, et al. Modeling the impact of one- and two-dose varicella vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella and zoster. Vaccine 2010; 28: 33853397.
10. Gao, Z, et al. Modelling the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination regimens on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in Australia. Epidemiology and Infection 2010; 138: 457468.
11. Poletti, P, et al. Perspectives on the impact of varicella immunization on herpes zoster. A model-based evaluation from three European countries. PLoS ONE 2013; 8: e60732.
12. Karhunen, M, et al. Modelling the impact of varicella vaccination on varicella and zoster. Epidemiology and Infection 2010; 138: 469481.
13. van Hoek, AJ, et al. The cost-effectiveness of varicella and combined varicella and herpes zoster vaccination programmes in the United Kingdom. Vaccine 2012; 30: 12251234.
14. Hales, CM, et al. Examination of links between herpes zoster incidence and childhood varicella vaccination. Annals of Internal Medicine 2013; 159: 739745.
15. van Hoek, AJ, et al. Modelling the impact of a combined varicella and zoster vaccination programme on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in England. Vaccine 2011; 29: 24112420.
16. Seward, JF, Marin, M, Vazquez, M. Varicella vaccine effectiveness in the US vaccination program: a review. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2008; 197 (Suppl. 2): S8289.
17. Bialek, SR, et al. Impact of a routine two-dose varicella vaccination program on varicella epidemiology. Pediatrics 2013; 132: e11341140.
18. Oxman, MN, et al. A vaccine to prevent herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in older adults. New England Journal of Medicine 2005; 352: 22712284.
19. Mossong, J, et al. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Medicine 2008; 5: e74.
20. Hull, B, et al. Immunisation coverage annual report, 2009. Communicable Diseases Intelligence Quarterly Report 2011; 35: 132148.
21. Hull, BP, et al. Immunisation coverage annual report, 2008. Communicable Diseases Intelligence Quarterly Report 2010; 34: 241258.
22. Hull, B, et al. NSW Annual Immunisation Coverage Report, 2009. New South Wales Public Health Bulletin 2010; 21: 210223.
23. Holmes, CN. Predictive value of a history of varicella infection. Canadian Family Physician 2005; 51: 6065.
24. Karunajeewa, HA, Kelly, HA. Predictive value of personal recall of chicken pox infection: implications for the use of varicella vaccine. Medical Journal of Australia 2001; 174: 153.
25. Dorell, CG, Jain, N, Yankey, D. Validity of parent-reported vaccination status for adolescents aged 13–17 years: National Immunization Survey-Teen, 2008. Public Health Reports 2011; 126 (Suppl. 2): 6069.
26. Gidding, HF, et al. The seroepidemiology and transmission dynamics of varicella in Australia. Epidemiology and Infection 2003; 131: 10851089.
27. Gidding, HF, et al. Modelling the impact of vaccination on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in Australia. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 2005; 29: 544551.
28. Chaves, SS, et al. Varicella disease among vaccinated persons: clinical and epidemiological characteristics, 1997–2005. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2008; 197 (Suppl. 2): S127131.
29. Shapiro, ED, et al. Effectiveness of 2 doses of varicella vaccine in children. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2011; 203: 312315.
30. Prymula, R, et al. Protection against varicella with two doses of combined measles-mumps-rubella-varicella vaccine versus one dose of monovalent varicella vaccine: a multicentre, observer-blind, randomised, controlled trial. Lancet 2014; 383: 13131324.
31. Hope-Simpson, RE. The nature of herpes zoster: a long-term study and a new hypothesis. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine 1965; 58: 920.
32. Brisson, M, et al. Exposure to varicella boosts immunity to herpes-zoster: implications for mass vaccination against chickenpox. Vaccine 2002; 20: 25002507.
33. Solomon, BA, et al. Lasting immunity to varicella in doctors study (L.I.V.I.D. study). Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology 1998; 38: 763765.
34. Thomas, SL, Wheeler, JG, Hall, AJ. Contacts with varicella or with children and protection against herpes zoster in adults: a case-control study. Lancet 2002; 360: 678682.
35. Ogunjimi, B, et al. Serology indicates cytomegalovirus infection is associated with varicella-zoster virus reactivation. Journal of Medical Virology 2014; 86: 812819.
36. Kuter, B, et al. Ten year follow-up of healthy children who received one or two injections of varicella vaccine. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal 2004; 23: 132137.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Epidemiology & Infection
  • ISSN: 0950-2688
  • EISSN: 1469-4409
  • URL: /core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Keywords

Type Description Title
WORD
Supplementary materials

Gao Supplementary Material
Supplementary Material

 Word (1.4 MB)
1.4 MB

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed