Skip to main content
    • Aa
    • Aa
  • Get access
    Check if you have access via personal or institutional login
  • Cited by 22
  • Cited by
    This article has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by CrossRef.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. A theory of global public goods and their provisions. Journal of Public Affairs, p. n/a.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. Microbehavioral Econometric Methods.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. Microbehavioral Econometric Methods.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. Modeling farmer adaptations to climate change in South America: a micro-behavioral economic perspective. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, Vol. 23, Issue. 1, p. 1.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. Microbehavioral Econometric Methods.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. Microbehavioral Econometric Methods.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. Microbehavioral Econometric Methods.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. Microbehavioral Econometric Methods.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. Microbehavioral Econometric Methods.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. Untold Tales of Goats in Deadly Indian Monsoons: Adapt or Rain-Retreat under Global Warming?. Journal of Extreme Events, p. 1650001.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2016. The Micro-behavioral Framework for Estimating Total Damage of Global Warming on Natural Resource Enterprises with Full Adaptations. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, Vol. 21, Issue. 2, p. 328.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2015. Adapting to extreme climates: raising animals in hot and arid ecosystems in Australia. International Journal of Biometeorology, Vol. 59, Issue. 5, p. 541.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2015. Adaptation to Global Warming as an Optimal Transition Process to A Greenhouse World. Economic Affairs, Vol. 35, Issue. 2, p. 272.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2014. Coupling climate risks, eco-systems, and anthropogenic decisions using South American and Sub-Saharan farming activities. Meteorological Applications, Vol. 21, Issue. 4, p. 848.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2014. Adapting Sensibly When Global Warming Turns the Fields Brown or Blue: A Comment on the 2014 IPCC Report. Economic Affairs, Vol. 34, Issue. 3, p. 399.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2014. Evaluation of the Agro-Ecological Zone methods for the study of climate change with micro farming decisions in sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Agronomy, Vol. 52, p. 157.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2013. Economics of global warming as a global public good: Private incentives and smart adaptations. Regional Science Policy & Practice, Vol. 5, Issue. 1, p. 83.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2013. An essay on the impact of climate change on US agriculture: weather fluctuations, climatic shifts, and adaptation strategies. Climatic Change, Vol. 121, Issue. 2, p. 115.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2013. Refining spatial resolution and spillovers of a micro-econometric analysis of adapting portfolios to climate change using the global positioning system. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 18, Issue. 7, p. 1019.

    Seo, S. Niggol 2012. Adaptation behaviours across ecosystems under global warming: A spatial micro-econometric model of the rural economy in South America*. Papers in Regional Science, p. no.


A geographically scaled analysis of adaptation to climate change with spatial models using agricultural systems in Africa

  • S. N. SEO (a1)
  • DOI:
  • Published online: 25 March 2011

The present paper provides a geographically scaled analysis of adaptation to climate change using adoption of agricultural systems observed across Africa. Using c. 9000 farm surveys, spatial logit models were applied to explain observed agricultural system choices by climate variables after accounting for soils, geography and other household characteristics. The results reveal that strong neighbourhood effects exist and a spatial re-sampling and bootstrapping approach can remove them. The crops-only system is adopted most frequently in the lowland humid forest, lowland sub-humid, mid-elevation sub-humid Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) and in the highlands in the east and in southern Africa. Integrated farming is favoured in the lowland dry savannah, moist savannah and semi-arid zones in West Africa and eastern coastal zones. A livestock-only system is favoured most in the mid/high-elevation moist savannahs located in southern Africa. Under a hot and dry Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) scenario, the crops-only system should move out from the currently favoured regions of humid zones in the lowlands towards the mid-/high elevations. It declines by more than 5% in the lowland savannahs. Integrated farming should increase across all the AEZs by as much as 5%, but less so in the deserts or in the humid forest zones in the mid-/high elevations. A livestock-only system should increase by 2–5% in the lowland semi-arid, dry savannah and moist savannah zones in the lowlands. Adaptation measures should be carefully scaled, up or down, considering geographic and ecological differentials as well as household characteristics, as proposed in the present study.

Corresponding author
To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email:
Linked references
Hide All

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

K. Anderson & W. A. Masters (2009). Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank.

J. M. Antle , S. M. Capalbo , E. T. Elliott & K. H. Paustian (2004). Adaptation, spatial heterogeneity and the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and CO2 fertilization: an integrated assessment approach. Climatic Change 64, 289315.

A. Basist , N. C. Grody , T. C. Peterson & C. N. Williams (1998). Using the Special Sensor Microwave Imager to monitor land surface temperature, wetness, and snow cover. Journal of Applied Meteorology 37, 888911.

K. J. Beron & W. P. M. Vijverberg (2004). Probit in a spatial context: a Monte Carlo approach. In Advances in Spatial Econometrics: Methodology, Tools and Applications (Eds L. Anselin , R. J. G. M. Florax & S. J. Rey ), pp. 169192. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer-Verlag.

G. J. Boer , G. Flato & D. Ramsden (2000). A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate for the 21st Century. Climate Dynamics 16, 427450.

T. A. Butt , B. A. Mccarl , J. Angerer , P. T. Dyke & J. W. Stuth (2005). The economic and food security implications of climate change in Mali. Climatic Change 68, 355378.

A. Case (1992). Neighborhood influence and technological change. Regional Science and Urban Economics 22, 491508.

B. Efron (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. The Annals of Statistics 7, 126.

R. E. Evenson & D. Gollin (2003). Assessing the impact of the Green Revolution 1960–2000. Science 300, 758762.

G. L. Hahn (1999). Dynamic responses of cattle to thermal heat loads. Journal of Animal Science 77, 1020.

M. Hulme , R. M. Doherty , T. Ngara , M. G. New & D. Lister (2001). African climate change: 1900–2100. Climate Research 17, 145168.

D. L. Kelly , C. D. Kolstad & G. T. Mitchell (2005). Adjustment costs from environmental change. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 50, 468495.

D. B. Lobell & C. B. Field (2008). Estimation of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect using growth rate anomalies of CO2 and crop yields since 1961. Global Change Biology 14, 3945.

M. L. Parry , O. F. Canziani , J. P. Palutikof , P. J. Van Der Linden & C. E. Hanson (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

M. L. Parry , C. P. Rosenzweig , A. Iglesias , M. Livermore & G. Fischer (2004). Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socioeconomic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14, 5367.

M. Sankaran , N. P. Hanan , R. J. Scholes , J. Ratnam , D. J. Augustine , B. S. Cade , J. Gignoux , S. I. Higgins , X. Le Roux , F. Ludwig , J. Ardo , F. Banyikwa , A. Bronn , G. Bucini , K. K. Caylor , M. B. Coughenour , A. Diouf , W. Ekaya , C. J. Feral , E. C. February , P. G. H. Frost , P. Hiernaux , H. Hrabar , K. L. Metzger , H. H. T. Prins , S. Ringrose , W. Sea , J. Tews , J. Worden & N. Zambatis (2005). Determinants of woody cover in African savannas. Nature 438, 846849.

W. Schlenker & M. J. Roberts (2009). Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U. S. crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of National Science of Academy of the United States 106, 1559415598.

T. P. Schultz (2004). Evidence of returns to schooling in Africa from household surveys: monitoring and restructuring the market for education. Journal of African Economies 13(Suppl. 2), ii95ii148.

S. N. Seo (2010). Is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change? A micro-econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in African agriculture. Food Policy 35, 3240.

S. N. Seo & R. Mendelsohn (2008). Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management. Agricultural Economics 38, 151165.

S. N. Seo , R. Mendelsohn , A. Dinar , R. Hassan & P. Kurukulasuriya (2009). A Ricardian analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa. Environmental and Resource Economics 43, 313332.

J. Tobin (1958). Liquidity preference as behavior towards risk. Review of Economic Studies 25, 6586.

W. M. Washington , J. W. Weatherly , G. A. Meehl , A. J. Semtner Jr., T. W. Bettge , A. P. Craig , W. G. Strand Jr., J. Arblaster , V. B. Wayland , R. James & Y. Zhang (2000). Parallel climate model (PCM): control and transient scenarios. Climate Dynamics 16, 755774.

Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

The Journal of Agricultural Science
  • ISSN: 0021-8596
  • EISSN: 1469-5146
  • URL: /core/journals/journal-of-agricultural-science
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *