Skip to main content Accessibility help

Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

  • R. S. SILVA (a1) (a2), L. KUMAR (a2), F. SHABANI (a2) and M. C. PICANÇO (a1) (a3)

Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

  • View HTML
    • Send article to Kindle

      To send this article to your Kindle, first ensure is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about sending to your Kindle. Find out more about sending to your Kindle.

      Note you can select to send to either the or variations. ‘’ emails are free but can only be sent to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

      Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

      Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model
      Available formats
      Send article to Dropbox

      To send this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Dropbox.

      Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model
      Available formats
      Send article to Google Drive

      To send this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your <service> account. Find out more about sending content to Google Drive.

      Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model
      Available formats
Corresponding author
*To whom all correspondence should be addressed. Email:
Hide All
Adams, S. R., Cockshull, K. E. & Cave, C. R. J. (2001). Effect of temperature on the growth and development of tomato fruits. Annals of Botany 88, 869877.
Attoh, C., Martey, E., Kwadzo, G. T. M., Etwire, P. M. & Wiredu, A. N. (2014). Can farmers receive their expected seasonal tomato price in Ghana? A probit regression analysis. Sustainable Agriculture Research 3, 1623.
Bernstein, L., Bosch, P., Canziani, O., Chen, Z., Christ, R. & Davidson, O. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers. Geneva: IPCC.
Bhowmik, D., Kumar, K. P. S., Paswan, S. & Srivastava, S. (2012). Tomato – a natural medicine and its health benefits. Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry 1, 3343.
Caicedo, A. & Peralta, I. (2013). Basic information about tomatoes and the tomato group. In Genetics, Genomics and Breeding of Tomato (Eds Liedl, B. E., Labate, J. A., Stommel, J. R., Slade, A. & Kole, C.), pp. 136. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Carvajal, L. (2007). Impacts of Climate Change on Human Development. Human Development Report Office Occasional Paper. New York: UNDP.
Chen, H.-M., Lin, C. Y., Yoshida, M., Hanson, P. & Schafleitner, R. (2015). Multiplex PCR for detection of tomato yellow leaf curl disease and root-knot nematode resistance genes in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.). International Journal of Plant Breeding and Genetics 9, 4456.
Chiew, F. H. S., Kirono, D. G. C., Kent, D. & Vaze, J. (2009). Assessment of rainfall simulations from global climate models and implications for climate change impact on runoff studies. In 18th World IMACS/ MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia 13–17 July 2009 (Eds Anderssen, R. S., Braddock, R. D. & Newham, L. T. H.), pp. 39073914. Canberra: Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand. Available from: (verified 9 June 2016).
Combet, E., Jarlot, A., Aidoo, K. E. & Lean, M. E. J. (2014). Development of a nutritionally balanced pizza as a functional meal designed to meet published dietary guidelines. Public Health Nutrition 17, 25772586.
COP (2015). More details about the agreement. In Conférence sur le Changement Climatique 2015. Paris, France: COP21. Available from: (verified 20 December 2015).
Dolstra, O., Venema, J. H., Groot, P. J. & van Hasselt, P. R. (2002). Low-temperature-related growth and photosynthetic performance of alloplasmic tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) with chloroplasts from L. hirsutum Humb. & Bonpl. Euphytica 124, 407421.
Eitzinger, A. & Läderach, P. (2011). Future Climate Scenarios for Uganda's Tea Growing Areas. Final Report. Cali, Colombia: CIAT.
Elith, J. & Leathwick, J. R. (2009). Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 40, 677697.
El-Amin, S. M. & Ali, R. B. M. (2012). Overcoming seasonality in the tropics by growing tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) varieties under cooled conditions. Agricultural Sciences 3, 602607.
FAOSTAT (2015). FAOSTAT Statistical Database. Rome: FAO. Available from: (verified 22 December 2015).
Gemechis, A. O., Struik, P. C. & Emana, B. (2012). Tomato production in Ethiopia: constraints and opportunities. In Tropentag 2012, International Research on Food Security, Natural Resource Management and Rural Development. Resilience of Agricultural Systems against Crises: Book of Abstracts (Ed. Tielkes, E.), p. 373. Gottingen, Germany: Cuvillier Verlag.
Gerard, P. J., Barringer, J. R. F., Charles, J. G., Fowler, S. V., Kean, J. M., Phillips, C. B., Tait, A. B. & Walker, G. P. (2013). Potential effects of climate change on biological control systems: case studies from New Zealand. BioControl 58, 149162.
Golam, F., Prodhan, Z. H., Nezhadahmadi, A. & Rahman, M. (2012). Heat tolerance in tomato. Life Science Journal 9, 19361950.
Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G. & Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model. CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper No. 60. Canberra: CSIRO.
Gould, W. A. (1992). Tomato Production, Processing and Technology, 3rd edn. Baltimore, MD: CTI Publications.
Hanson, B. R., Hutmacher, R. B. & May, D. M. (2006). Drip irrigation of tomato and cotton under shallow saline ground water conditions. Irrigation and Drainage Systems 20, 155175.
Hennessy, K. J. & Colman, R. (2007). Global climate change projections. In Climate Change in Australia – Technical Report 2007 (Ed. Pearce, K. B., Holper, P. N., Hopkins, M., Bouma, W. J., Whetton, P. H., Hennessy, K. J. & Power, S. B.), pp. 3648. Melbourne: CSIRO.
Heuvelink, E. (2005). Tomatoes. Crop Production Science in Horticulture series no. 13. Wallingford, UK: CABI Publication.
Hickey, M., Hoogers, R., Singh, R., Christen, E., Henderson, C., Ashcroft, B., Top, M., O'Donnell, D., Sylvia, S. & Hoffmann, H. (2006). Maximising Returns from Water in the Australian Vegetable Industry: National Report. Orange, NSW, Australia: NSW Department of Primary Industries.
IPCC (2000). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Jarnevich, C. S., Stohlgren, T. J., Kumar, S., Morisette, J. T. & Holcombe, T. R. (2015). Caveats for correlative species distribution modeling. Ecological Informatics 29, 615.
Jarvis, A., Lane, A. & Hijmans, R. J. (2008). The effect of climate change on crop wild relatives. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 126, 1323.
Jones, J. B. (2007). Tomato Plant Culture: in the Field, Greenhouse, and Home Garden. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Kearney, M. & Porter, W. (2009). Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges. Ecology Letters 12, 334350.
Kimura, S. & Sinha, N. (2008). Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum): a model fruit-bearing crop. Cold Spring Harbor Protocols pdb.emo105. doi: 10.1101/pdb.emo105.
Kriticos, D. J. & Leriche, A. (2010). The effects of climate data precision on fitting and projecting species niche models. Ecography 33, 115127.
Kriticos, D. J. & Randall, R. P. (2001). A comparison of systems to analyze potential weed distributions. In Weed Risk Assessment (Eds Groves, R. H., Panetta, F. D. & Virtue, J. G.), pp. 6179. Collingwood, Australia: CSIRO Publishing.
Kriticos, D. J., Webber, B. L., Leriche, A., Ota, N., Macadam, I., Bathols, J. & Scott, J. K. (2012). CliMond: global high-resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 3, 5364.
Lang, J. (2004). Exploring the tomato: transformations of nature, society, and economy (review). Technology and Culture 45, 222224.
Martínez-Blanco, J., Muñoz, P., Antón, A. & Rieradevall, J. (2011). Assessment of tomato Mediterranean production in open-field and standard multi-tunnel greenhouse, with compost or mineral fertilizers, from an agricultural and environmental standpoint. Journal of Cleaner Production 19, 985997.
Mattos, L. M., Moretti, C. L., Jan, S., Sargent, S. A., Lima, C. E. P. & Fontenelle, M. R. (2014). Climate changes and potential impacts on quality of fruit and vegetable crops. In Emerging Technologies and Management of Crop Stress Tolerance. Volume 1: Biological Techniques (Eds Ahmad, P. & Rasool, S.), pp. 467486. San Diego: Elsevier.
Miller, B. W., Frid, L., Chang, T., Piekielek, N., Hansen, A. J. & Morisette, J. T. (2015). Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change. AIMS Environmental Science 2, 400426.
Nordenström, E., Guest, G. & Fröling, M. (2010). LCA of local bio-chip fuelled greenhouses versus Mediterranean open field tomatoes for consumption in northern Scandinavia. Paper presented at ECO-TECH́10, 22–24 November 2010, Kalmar, Sweden. Available from: (verified 20 December 2015).
O'Connell, S., Rivard, C., Peet, M. M., Harlow, C. & Louws, F. (2012). High tunnel and field production of organic heirloom tomatoes: yield, fruit quality, disease, and microclimate. HortScience 47, 12831290.
Olaniyi, J. O., Akanbi, W. B., Adejumo, T. A. & Akande, O. G. (2010). Growth, fruit yield and nutritional quality of tomato varieties. African Journal of Food Science 4, 398402.
Padilla-Bernal, L. E., Lara-Herrera, A., Reyes-Rivas, E. & González-Hernández, J. R. (2015). Assessing environmental management of tomato production under protected agriculture. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 18, 193211.
Parmesan, C. (2006). Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 37, 637669.
Parthasarathy, U., Nirmal, B. K., Senthil, K. R., Ashis, G. R., Mohan, S. & Parthasarathy, V. A. (2013). Diversity of Indian Garcinia – a medicinally important spice crop in India. Acta Horticulturae (ISHS) 979, 467476.
Patanè, C., Tringali, S. & Sortino, O. (2011). Effects of deficit irrigation on biomass, yield, water productivity and fruit quality of processing tomato under semi-arid Mediterranean climate conditions. Scientia Horticulturae 129, 590596.
Ramirez-Cabral, N. Y. Z., Kumar, L. & Taylor, S. (2016). Crop niche modeling projects major shifts in common bean growing areas. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 218–219, 102113.
Robinson, E., Kolavalli, S. & Diao, X. (2013). Food Processing and Agricultural Productivity Challenges: the Case of Tomatoes in Ghana. Ghana Strategy Support Program Discussion Note #20. Washington, DC: IFPRI.
Rodda, G. H., Jarnevich, C. S. & Reed, R. N. (2011). Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders. PLoS ONE 6, e14670. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0014670
Shabani, F. & Kotey, B. (2016). Future distribution of cotton and wheat in Australia under potential climate change. Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge 154, 175185.
Shabani, F., Kumar, L. & Taylor, S. (2012). Climate change impacts on the future distribution of date palms: a modeling exercise using CLIMEX. PLoS ONE 7, e48021. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048021
Shabani, F., Kumar, L. & Esmaeili, A. (2013). Use of CLIMEX, land use and topography to refine areas suitable for date palm cultivation in Spain under climate change scenarios. Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change 4, article 145. doi: 10.4172/2157–7617.1000145.
Shabani, F., Kumar, L. & Taylor, S. (2014). Projecting date palm distribution in Iran under climate change using topography, physicochemical soil properties, soil taxonomy, land use, and climate data. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 118, 553567.
Shabani, F., Kumar, L. & Taylor, S. (2015). Distribution of date palms in the Middle East based on future climate scenarios. Experimental Agriculture 51, 244263.
Singh, S. (2004). Crisis and diversification in Punjab agriculture: role of state and agribusiness. Economic and Political Weekly 39, 55835590.
Soberón, J. M. (2010). Niche and area of distribution modeling: a population ecology perspective. Ecography 33, 159167.
Sorribas, F. J. & Verdejo-Lucas, S. (1994). Survey of Meloidogyne spp. in tomato production fields of Baix Llobregat county, Spain. Journal of Nematology 26, 731736.
Stohlgren, T. J. (2007). Measuring Plant Diversity: Lessons from the Field. New York: Oxford University Press.
Suppiah, R., Hennessy, K. J., Whetton, P. H., McInnes, K., Macadam, I., Bathols, J., Ricketts, J. & Page, C. M. (2007). Australian climate change projections derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Australian Meteorological Magazine 56, 131152.
Sutherst, R. W. & Maywald, G. F. (1985). A computerised system for matching climates in ecology. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 13, 281299.
Sutherst, R. W., Maywald, G. F. & Kriticos, D. J. (2007). CLIMEX Version 3: User's Guide. Melbourne: Hearne Scientific Software Pty Ltd.
Webber, B. L., Yates, C. J., Le Maitre, D. C., Scott, J. K., Kriticos, D. J., Ota, N., McNeill, A., Le Roux, J. J. & Midgley, G. F. (2011). Modelling horses for novel climate courses: insights from projecting potential distributions of native and alien Australian acacias with correlative and mechanistic models. Diversity and Distributions 17, 9781000.
Wheeler, T. & von Braun, J. (2013). Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 341, 508513.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

The Journal of Agricultural Science
  • ISSN: 0021-8596
  • EISSN: 1469-5146
  • URL: /core/journals/journal-of-agricultural-science
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *


Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed