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Economic returns of family planning and fertility decline in India, 1991–2061

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 April 2021

Srinivas Goli Open the ORCID record for Srinivas Goli [Opens in a new window] ,
K. S. James ,
Devender Singh ,
Venkatesh Srinivasan ,
Rakesh Mishra Open the ORCID record for Rakesh Mishra [Opens in a new window] ,
Md Juel Rana Open the ORCID record for Md Juel Rana [Opens in a new window]  and
Umenthala Srikanth Reddy
Srinivas Goli*
Affiliation:
Australia India Institute, University of Western Australia (UWA), Perth, Australia Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), Centre for the Study of Regional Development, School of Social Sciences (SSS-3), Room No. 102, New Delhi 110067, India
K. S. James
Affiliation:
International Institute for Population Sciences (I.I.P.S.), Deonar, Mumbai 400088, India
Devender Singh
Affiliation:
National Program Officer (Population & Development), United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), India
Venkatesh Srinivasan
Affiliation:
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), New Delhi, India
Rakesh Mishra
Affiliation:
National Institute of Urban Affairs, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110003, India
Md Juel Rana
Affiliation:
International Institute for Population Sciences (I.I.P.S.), Deonar, Mumbai 400088, India
Umenthala Srikanth Reddy
Affiliation:
International Institute for Population Sciences (I.I.P.S.), Deonar, Mumbai 400088, India
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: srinivas.goli@uwa.edu.au; srinivasgoli@mail.jnu.ac.in; sirispeaks2u@gmail.com
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Abstract

Investment in family planning (FP) provides returns through a lifetime. Global evidence shows that FP is the second-best buy in terms of return on investment after liberalizing trade. In this study, we estimate the cumulative benefits of FP investments for India from 1991 to 2016 and project them up to 2061 with four scenarios of fertility levels. The findings suggest that India will have greater elasticity of FP investments to lifetime economic returns compared to the world average (cost–revenue ratio of 1:120). We have taken four scenarios for the goalpost, viz., 2.1, 1.8, 1.6, and 1.4. Although different scenarios of total fertility rate (TFR) levels at the goalpost (i.e., the year 2061) offer varied lifetime returns from FP, scenario TFR < 1.8 will be counterproductive and will reduce the potential benefits. With a comprehensive approach, if the country focuses more on improving the quality of FP services and on reducing the unmet need for FP to enhance reproductive health care and expand maximum opportunities for education and employment for both women and men, it can improve its potential to reap more benefits.

Keywords

Cost–revenue ratiodemographic dividendeconomic returnfamily planningIndiareturns on investment
Type
Research Paper
Information
Journal of Demographic Economics , Volume 89 , Issue 1 , March 2023 , pp. 29 - 61
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain 2021

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