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Explanation of a New Method of Adjusting Mortality Tables, with some observations upon Mr. Makeham's modification of Gompertz's Theory

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

Extract

All tabular numbers drawn directly from observations, especially those appertaining to statistics, are more or less affected by unavoidable imperfections arising from defective information, insufficiency in the number of observations recorded by the experience, and other known or unknown incidental causes. When a consecutive series of tabular numbers is taken and differenced up to a certain order, the existence of the imperfections or errors alluded to, is at once revealed by the differences, which exhibit a conspicuous disturbance of their law of progression. To eradicate the errors and effect a proper adjustment of the original numbers is, however, an operation of peculiar and somewhat novel difficulty, and a critical examination of the empirical expedients, usually resorted to for such purpose, will show that instead of meeting the indispensable requirements of the problem, they only evade its most essential conditions, and thereby impregnate the results with a new series of theoretical errors, which too readily evade detection in consequence of the systematic uniformity of their law.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1870

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References

page 390 note * Journal, vol xiii., p. 95.

page 394 note * Those who are not practically familiar with progressions of differences, and the disturbances caused by isolated errors, need only to have recourse to the elementary Rule given by me in a former paper, Journal, vol, xii., page 140.

page 399 note * This relation might otherwise be simply stated μ3= μxyz.…

page 400 note * If stated in the form

It might be more convenient to deal with numerically, as the logarithms of the constants in either case would then all be positive.

page 401 note * For continuous annuities Σ is replaced by fùt and the values are also identical throughout.

page 405 note * In a similar calculation for the former Experience Table (17 Offices) I have chosen the curve midway between those determined by ages 20, 40, 60, 80, and 30, 50, 70, 90, and the resulting constants are,

from which a table may readily be computed. It will be understood that log k is not a significant element of the law of mortality, as it merely determines the radix of the table.