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The Statistical Basis to National Fuel Policy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

C. I. K. Forster
Affiliation:
Statistics of the Ministry of Power

Extract

I cannot recall that national fuel policy has ever previously been the subject of a paper to the Institute, though it is becoming quite usual for the Institute to address itself to subjects outside the traditional actuarial fields. Nearly all the Alfred Watson Memorial Lectures, for example, have been on outside subjects and two of these, ‘Some thoughts on economic forecasting’ by Sir Alexander Cairncross (as he is now) and ‘Problems in forecasting in the chemical industry’ by Sir Paul Chambers, have certain links with the subject of this paper.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1969

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References

page 187 note * Cmnd. 3438, Her Majesty's Stationery Office.

page 190 note * The tax was raised to 2·42d. a gallon on 22 Nov. 1968.

page 190 note † Cmnd. 2798, Her Majesty's Stationery Office.

page 192 note * The consumer of electricity or gas, rather than the power station or gas works; also the consumer direct of coal, oil or natural gas.

page 192 note † For petroleum, the industry provided estimates of demand on the basis of the specified assumptions. Subsequently the Ministry of Power compiled its own estimates of cost, manpower and capital investment in consultation with a number of leading companies.

page 196 note * The methods of converting the different fuels into ‘coal equivalent’ are detailed in the Ministry of Power Statistical Digest (page 27 of the 1967 edition). Briefly, secondary fuels such as electricity and gas are equated to the amount of coal (or oil, equated to coal on a constant basis) required to produce them.

page 201 note * In 1970 alternative estimates are given of coal and oil usage at power stations. The first figures assumed no discrimination against oil other than the tax of 2d. a gallon. The bracketed figures assumed a continuation of the current short-term arrangements which provided for an additional loading against oil.

page 203 note * J.I.A. 93, 323–64.

page 204 note * See, for example, A Programme for Growth, Nos. 1–6. Department of Applied Economics, Cambridge, and Chapman & Hall.

page 207 note * Additionally there are linkages (not shown on the diagram) by which the electricity and gas industry's use of other fuels affects and is affected by the price of those fuels.

page 207 note † Strictly the items listed are wholly or partly under the control of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, but they can be used as instruments of fuel policy.

page 209 note * See “The Demand for Fuel 1948–1975”, No. 8 in the Series A Programme For Growth.

page 214 note * See Operational Research Models of the U.K. Gas Industry by F. K. Mellon—1968 Research, Utilization and Marketing Conference of American Gas Association.

page 216 note * The South of Scotland Electricity Board and North of Scotland Hydro-Electric Board perform both functions, but this introduces no serious complications into the construction of the model.

page 217 note * See: Further Experience with Simulation Models in System Planning, Berrie, T. W., Second Power Systems Computation Conference, 1966 Google Scholar ; The Economics of System Planning in Bulk Electricity Supply, T. W. Berrie, Electrical Review, 15–29 September 1967.

page 225 note * Optional constraints, which could be introduced if it is desired for fuel policy purposes to use more coal than would otherwise be consumed.