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Some notes on probability

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 August 2014

M. T. L. Bizley
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‘Scientific method is systematic doubt.’

Dr Stuart Chase

We may approach our subject by considering how we are to define probability. This at once raises a number of questions which may be classified under a few broad headings in the following way. First, is the definition to be subjective? By a subjective definition we shall mean in this paper one that admits the possibility that two persons in the same state of relevant knowledge may reasonably hold different views as to the probability of a given event. Secondly, is probability to be only a theoretical concept, or must our definition be such that a probability can be determined by practical experiments and applied to practical problems? Thirdly, are we to embrace all types of event or only a restricted class, e.g. those that occur or can be imagined to occur on a large number of occasions? Fourthly, shall we define probability as a number or are we to admit the existence of a non-numerical probability? And if we stipulate that it is a number, must it be a rational one?

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Research Article
Information
Journal of the Staple Inn Actuarial Society , Volume 10 , Issue 3 , July 1951 , pp. 161 - 203
Copyright
Copyright © Institute of Actuaries Students' Society 1951

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