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Foreign Policy Specificity: An Analysis of Ministerial Survival in Latin America, 1945–2020

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 July 2023

Pedro Feliú Ribeiro Open the ORCID record for Pedro Feliú Ribeiro [Opens in a new window]  and
Camilo López Burian Open the ORCID record for Camilo López Burian [Opens in a new window]
Pedro Feliú Ribeiro
Affiliation:
Pedro Feliú Ribeiro is an associate professor of international relations at the University of São Paulo, Brazil. pedrofeliu@usp.br.
Camilo López Burian
Affiliation:
Camilo López Burian is an assistant professor of political science and international relations at the University of the Republic and a member of the National System of Researchers, Montevideo, Uruguay. camilo.lopez@cienciassociales.edu.uy.
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Abstract

This research note analyzes the incentives of different types of policy areas for a president to keep or dismiss a minister. It uses ministerial survival analysis to compare foreign and domestic policy areas, focusing on comparable and analogous presidential decisions among countries and portfolios. The research utilizes ministerial survival data for education, finance, health, and foreign policy between 1945 and 2020 in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. Using Cox regression models, we find that a foreign policy portfolio has a positive effect on ministerial survival, but the specificity of this portfolio does not hold for autocratic governments. Autocracies show higher levels of ministerial survival in all four portfolios, but a foreign policy portfolio is no more stable than domestic portfolios. Democratic presidents have the incentive to signal stability to the international audience, preserving the foreign policy portfolio from the frequent ministerial changes in domestic portfolios.

Keywords

Foreign policydomestic policyministerial survivalLatin America
Type
Research Notes
Information
Latin American Politics and Society , Volume 65 , Issue 4 , November 2023 , pp. 176 - 194
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the University of Miami

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Footnotes

Conflict of interest: Pedro Feliú Ribeiro and Camilo López Burian declare none.

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