Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-4hhp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-01T08:14:10.307Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Monetary Policy Normals, Future and Past

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2020

Peter Sinclair*
Affiliation:
University of Birmingham
William A. Allen*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Abstract

The paper looks at the ‘new normal’ in so many of the world's central banks, and specifically the UK. It examines the position of the monetary policy framework, instrument settings, the underlying models, unconventional policy measures, real interest rates, and the interface with macroprudential policy. It explores both the advantages and challenges involved in any move to return towards pre-crisis arrangements, and offers suggestions for possible ways in which current policy dilemmas might be resolved.

Type
Research Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The authors would like to thank the other contributors to this issue, in particular Jagjit Chadha, for helpful comments.

References

Allen, W.A. (2017), ‘Quantitative easing and the independence of the Bank of England’, National Institute Economic Review, this issue.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, W.A. and Moessner, R. (2012), ‘The liquidity consequences of the Euro Area sovereign debt crisis’, BIS working paper no 390.Google Scholar
Ball, L. (2014), ‘The case for a long-run inflation target of four percent’, IMF working paper WP/14/92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barwell, R. (2017), ‘Building on incomplete foundations: financial stability policy since the crash’, National Institute Economic Review, 241, August.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M. and Gilchrist, S. (1999), ‘The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework’, chapter 21 in Taylor, J. and Woodford, M. (eds), The Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.Google Scholar
Breedon, F., Chadha, J. and Waters, A. (2012), ‘The financial market impact of UK quantitative easing’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 28, pp. 702–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brownlees, C. and Engle, R. (2017), ‘SRISK: a conditional capital shortfall measure of systemic risk’, Review of Financial Studies, 30, pp. 4879.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chadha, J. (2017), ‘The new art of central banking’, in Mizen, P., Rubio, M. and Turner, P. (eds), Macroprudential Policy and Practice, (forthcoming).Google Scholar
Cochrane, J. (2011), ‘Determinacy and identification with Taylor Rules’, Journal of Political Economy, pp. 565–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cochrane, J. (2017), ‘Michelson-Morley, Occam and Fisher: the radical implications of stable inflation at near-zero interest rates’, NBER Macroeconomics Annual (forthcoming).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Curdia, V. and Woodford, M. (2010), ‘Credit spreads and monetary policy’, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 42, pp. 335.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Del Negro, M. and Sims, C. (2015), ‘When does a central bank's balance sheet require fiscal support?’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 73, pp. 119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dixit, A. and Stiglitz, J. (1977), ‘Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity’, American Economic Review, 67, pp. 297308.Google Scholar
European Systemic Risk Board (2017), A Review of Macroprudential Policy in the European Union in 2016.Google Scholar
Galati, G. and Moessner, R. (2012), ‘Macroprudential policy: a literature review’, Journal of Economic Surveys, 27, pp. 846–78.Google Scholar
Gertler, M. and Kiyotaki, N. (2010), ‘Financial intermediaries and credit policy in business cycle analysis’, in Friedman, B. and Woodford, M. (eds), The Handbook of Monetary Economics, pp. 547–99, Elsevier.Google Scholar
Goodhart, C. and Ashworth, J. (2012), ‘QE: a successful start may be running into diminishing returns’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 28, pp. 640–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haldane, A. and Madouros, V. (2012), ‘The dog and the frisbee’, speech at the Changing Landscape Symposium, Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.Google Scholar
Joyce, M., McLaren, N. and Young, C. (2012), ‘Quantitative easing in the United Kingdom: evidence from financial markets on QE1 and QE2’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 28, pp. 671701.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCallum, B. (2011), ‘Should central banks raise their inflation targets? Some relevant issues’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 17005.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miles, D., Yang, J. and Marcheggiano, G. (2012), ‘Optimal bank capital’, Economic Journal, 122, pp. 137.Google Scholar
Morris, S. and Shin, H.S. (2002), ‘The social value of public information’, American Economic Review, 92, pp. 1521–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sargent, T. and Wallace, N. (1981), ‘Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic’, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sayers, R. (1976), The Bank of England 1891–1944, Vol. 2, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Schmitt-Grohe, S. and Uribe, M. (2014), ‘Liquidity traps: an interest-based exit strategy’, Manchester School, 82, S1, 114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmitt-Grohe, S. and Uribe, M. (2017), ‘Liquidity traps and jobless recoveries’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9, pp. 165204.Google Scholar
Sheedy, K. (2014), ‘Debt and incomplete financial markets: a case for nominal GDP targeting’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring, pp. 301–61.Google Scholar
Sims, C. (2013), ‘Paper money’, American Economic Review, 103, pp. 563–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sinclair, P. (2017), ‘Real estate, construction, money, credit and finance’, in Siklos, P. and Sturm, J.-E. (eds), Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking, Oxford University Press (forthcoming).Google Scholar
Sinclair, P. and Ellis, C. (2012), ‘Quantitative easing is not as unconventional as it seems’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 28, pp. 837–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar