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Section III. Prospects for the European Union

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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GDP in the Euro Area fell by 0.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2001, the first quarterly decline since 1993. With the notable exception of Spain, output declined or stagnated in all the Euro Area economies that have published GDP figures for the fourth quarter. Germany and Austria experienced a technical recession in the latter half of last year, with two consecutive quarters in which output declined. Outside the Euro Area, Sweden and Denmark both recorded modest growth in the final quarter of the year. In the case of Sweden this stemmed from a weakening of the currency against the euro, while Danish growth was supported by an expansion in government expenditure. The widespread downturn in the Euro Area resulted from further contractions in corporate expenditure. Private sector investment and inventory accumulation made a negative contribution to output growth in 2001 as a whole; in contrast consumers' expenditure remained relatively resilient, especially in France and Spain. Trade contracted markedly towards the end of the year, especially in Germany and France. Export and import volumes in the Euro Area both declined by 0.6 per cent in the final quarter of the year. For the year as a whole, net trade made a strong positive contribution to growth, reflecting exceptionally weak import demand in Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Finland.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 180 , April 2002 , pp. 23 - 33
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Notes

1 The first estimate of US GDP in the first quarter of 2002 is scheduled to be published on April 26, five days after the date of completion of the current forecast.

2 The measures include special depreciation allowances for certain types of investment made after September 10, 2001 and before 11 September, 2004, as well as a temporary increase from 2 to 5 years in the period during which businesses can carry back net operating losses for tax purposes.

3 The value of imports of insurance services in the US National Income and Product Accounts is measured on an accruals basis as the value of premiums paid to foreign insurers less payments by foreign insurers to cover losses. The scale of payments due in the aftermath of the destruction caused by the attacks on 11 September caused imports of insurance services to become negative in the third quarter. This affected only the price deflator for imports, not the volume of services.

4 Financial derivative products previously included in investment income flows in the current account have been reclassified to securities investment transactions in the financial account.

5 Pain, N. and van Welsum, D. (2002), Financial liberalisation, alliance capitalism, and the changing structure of financial markets, in Alliance Capitalism Entrepreneurial Cooperation in Knowledge Based Economies (eds. J. H. Dunning and G. Boyd), Edward Elgar, forthcoming.