Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-wq484 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-27T06:54:03.563Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 November 2013

Andreas Graefe  and
J. Scott Armstrong
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The Big-Issue Model predicts election outcomes based on voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle the most important issue. It provided accurate forecasts of the 2012 US presidential election. The results demonstrate the model's usefulness if one issue clearly dominates the campaign, such as the state of the economy in the 2012 election. It is also particularly valuable if economic fundamentals disagree, a situation in which forecasts from traditional political economy models suggest high uncertainty. The model provides immediate feedback to political candidates and parties on the success of their campaign and can advise them on which issues to assign the highest priority.

Type
Original Articles
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 2 , Issue 1 , April 2014 , pp. 141 - 149
Copyright
Copyright © The European Political Science Association 2013 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*Dr. Andreas Graefe is a Research Fellow at the Department of Communication Science and Media Research at LMU Munich, Oettingenstrasse 67, 80538 Munich, Germany (a.graefe@lmu.de). J. Scott Armstrong is Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, 748 Huntsman Hall, Philadelphia PA 19104, USA (armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu). We would like to thank Jennifer Kwok for editorial work.

References

Armstrong, J. Scott. 2006. ‘Findings from Evidence-based Forecasting: Methods for Reducing Forecast Error’. International Journal of Forecasting 22(3):583–598.Google Scholar
Asher, Herbert B. 1992. Presidential Elections and American Politics: Voters, Candidates, and Campaigns since 1952, 5th ed. Belmont: Brooks/Cole Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2012a. ‘Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections: Editor's Introduction’. PS: Political Science & Politics 45(4):610–613.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2012b. ‘Forecasting the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2012: The Trial-heat and the Seats-in-Trouble Models’. PS: Political Science & Politics 45(4):630–634.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E., Cherry, Lynna L.Wink, Kenneth A.. 1992. ‘The Convention Bump’. American Politics Research 20(3):287–307.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Kornberg, Allan., Scotto, Thomas J., Reifler, Jason, Sanders, David, Stewart, Marianne C.Whiteley, Paul F.. 2011. ‘Yes We Can! Valence Politics and Electoral Choice in America, 2008’. Electoral Studies 30(3):450–461.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Sanders, David, Stewart, Marianne C.Whiteley, Paul F.. 2009. Performance Politics and the British Voter. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Addison Wesley.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Bafumi, JosephWilson, Bret. 2001. ‘Was the 2000 Presidential Election Predictable?’. PS: Political Science & Politics 34(4):815–819.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S.Wlezien, Christopher. 2012. ‘The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential Vote’. PS: Political Science & Politics 45(4):620–624.Google Scholar
Evans, GeoffreyAndersen, Robert. 2006. ‘The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions’. Journal of Politics 68(1):194–207.Google Scholar
Evans, GeoffreyPickup, Mark. 2010. ‘Reversing the Causal Arrow: The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions in the 2000–2004 U.S. Presidential Election Cycle’. The Journal of Politics 72(4):1236–1251.Google Scholar
Fair, Ray C. 2009. ‘Presidential and Congressional Vote-share Equations’. American Journal of Political Science 53(1):55–72.Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, GerdGoldstein, Daniel G.. 1996. ‘Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality’. Psychological Review 103(4):650–669.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2013. ‘Issue and Leader Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections’. Electoral Studies, doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2013.1004.1003.Google Scholar
Graefe, AndreasArmstrong, J. Scott. 2012. ‘Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic’. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 25(1):41–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr.Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2013. ‘Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The PollyVote’. Forthcoming in PS: Political Science & Politics, available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2246259.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr.Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014. ‘Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections’. International Journal of Forecasting 30(1):43–54.Google Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. 2012. ‘Obama's Reelection Prospects under “Bread and Peace” Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election’. PS: Political Science & Politics 45(4):635–639.Google Scholar
Holbrook, Thomas M. 2010. ‘Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections’. In The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior, edited by Jan E. Leighley, 346–371. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holbrook, Thomas M. 2012. ‘Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2012 Presidential Election’. PS: Political Science & Politics 45(4):640–643.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Nadeau, RichardElias, Angelo. 2008. ‘Economics, Party, and the Vote: Causality Issues and Panel Data’. American Journal of Political Science 52(1):84–95.Google Scholar
Lockerbie, Brad. 2012. ‘Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes: The Presidency and the House in 2012’. PS: Political Science & Politics 45(4):644–647.Google Scholar
Norpoth, HelmutBednarczuk, Michael. 2012. ‘History and Primary: The Obama Reelection’. PS: Political Science & Politics 45(4):614–617.Google Scholar
Redlawsk, David P. 2004. ‘What Voters Do: Information Search during Election Campaigns’. Political Psychology 25(4):595–610.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Wlezien, Christopher, Franklin, MarkTwiggs, Daniel. 1997. ‘Economic Perceptions and Vote Choice: Disentangling the Endogeneity’. Political Behavior 19(1):7–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Graefe and Armstrong Dataset

Dataset

http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/22949
Link