Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-dfsvx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-29T06:17:08.443Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Relative Unemployment, Political Information, and the Job Approval Ratings of State Governors and Legislatures

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 January 2021

Jeffrey E. Cohen Open the ORCID record for Jeffrey E. Cohen [Opens in a new window]
Jeffrey E. Cohen*
Affiliation:
Fordham University, Bronx, NY, USA
*
Corresponding Author: Jeffrey E. Cohen, Fordham University, 675 Faber Hall, 441 E. Fordham Road, Bronx, NY 10458, USA. Email: cohen@fordham.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Research finds that voters benchmark the state's unemployment level to the nation's when holding state policy makers accountable. Yet benchmarking requires some voter knowledge if the standard is to be applied correctly as an accountability rule. This article leverages the fact that voters have more knowledge about their state governors than legislatures assess how much knowledge is necessary for holding these policy makers accountable. Using pooled Cooperative Congressional Election Study data from 2006 to 2016, results find that knowledge has stronger mediating effects for the state legislature than governor. Furthermore, despite the low knowledge levels among voters about the state legislature, collectively there appears to be enough knowledge to hold that policymaking body accountable. The conclusion offers directions for future research.

Keywords

job approvalgovernorsexecutive politicsstate legislatureseconomic policypublic policyissue preferencespublic opinion
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 20 , Issue 4 , December 2020 , pp. 437 - 461
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Althaus, Scott L., Cizmar, Anne M., and Gimpel, James G. 2009. “Media Supply, Audience Demand, and the Geography of News Consumption in the United States.” Political Communication 26 (3): 249–77..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Cameron D. 2006. “Economic Voting and Multilevel Governance: A comparative Individual-level Analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 50 (2): 449–63..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ansolabehere, Stephen, Meredith, Marc, and Snowberg, Erik. 2012. “Sociotropic Voting and the Media.” In Improving Public Opinion Surveys: Interdisciplinary Innovation and the American National Election Studies, ed. Aldrich, J. H. and McGraw, K. M. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 175–89.Google Scholar
Arceneaux, Kevin. 2005. “Does Federalism Weaken Democratic Representation in the United States?” Publius: The Journal of Federalism 35 (2): 297–311..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arceneaux, Kevin. 2006. “The Federal Face of Voting: Are Elected Officials Held Accountable for the Functions Relevant to Their Office?” Political Psychology 27 (5): 731–54..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arnold, R. Douglas, and Carnes, Nicholas. 2012. “Holding Mayors Accountable: New York's Executives from Koch to Bloomberg.” American Journal of Political Science 56 (4): 949–63..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atkeson, Lonna Rae, and Partin, Randall W. 1995. “Economic and Referendum Voting: A Comparison of Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections.” American Political Science Review 89 (1): 99–107..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aytaç, Selim Erdem. 2018. “Relative Economic Performance and the Incumbent Vote: A Reference Point Theory.” The Journal of Politics 80 (1): 16–29..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernick, E. Lee. 2016. “Studying Governors over Five Decades: What We Know and Where We Need to Go?” State and Local Government Review 48 (2): 132–46..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Besley, Timothy, and Case, Anne. 1995. “Incumbent Behavior: Vote Seeking, Tax Setting and Yardstick Competition.” American Economic Review 85 (1): 25–45..Google Scholar
Brace, Paul. 1993. State Government and Economic Performance. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Brown, Adam R. 2010. “Are Governors Responsible for the State Economy? Partisanship, Blame, and Divided Federalism.” The Journal of Politics 72 (3): 605–15..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Delli Carpini, Michael X., and Keeter, Scott. 1996. What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Delli Carpini, Michael X., Keeter, Scott, and Kennamer, J. David. 1994. “Effects of the News Media Environment on Citizen Knowledge of State Politics and Government.” Journalism Quarterly 71 (2): 443–56..Google Scholar
Carsey, Thomas M., and Wright, Gerald C. 1998. “State and National Factors in Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (3): 994–1002..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chubb, John E. 1988. “Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections.” American Political Science Review 82 (1): 133–54..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coffey, Daniel. 2005. “Measuring Gubernatorial Ideology: A Content Analysis of State of the State Speeches.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 5 (1): 88–103..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Jeffrey E. 1983. “Gubernatorial Popularity in Nine States.” American Politics Quarterly 11 (2): 219–35..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Jeffrey E. 2018. “From Antisemitism to Philosemitism? Trends in American Attitudes toward Jews from 1964 to 2016.” Religions 9 (4): 107–28..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Jeffrey E., and King, James D. 2004. “Relative Unemployment and Gubernatorial Popularity.” Journal of Politics 66 (4): 1267–82..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crew, Robert E. Jr., Branham, David, Weiher, Gregory R., and Bernick, Ethan. 2002. “Political Events in a Model of Gubernatorial Approval.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 2 (3): 283–97..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crew, Robert E. Jr., and Weiher, Gregory R. 1996. “Gubernatorial Popularity in Three States: A Preliminary Model.” The Social Science Journal 33 (1): 39–54..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DiLeo, Daniel. 2001. “To Develop or to Redistribute? An Analysis of the Content of Governors' Agendas.” State and Local Government Review 33 (1): 52–59..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ebeid, Michael, and Rodden, Jonathan. 2006. “Economic Geography and Economic Voting: Evidence from the US States.” British Journal of Political Science 36 (3): 527–47..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B., and Stimson, James A. 2002. The Macro Polity. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey, and Pickup, Mark. 2010. “Reversing the Causal Arrow: The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions in the 2000–2004 US Presidential Election Cycle.” The Journal of Politics 72 (4): 1236–51..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferguson, Margaret. 2014. “State Executives.” In The Oxford Handbook of State and Local Government, ed. Haider-Markel, D. P. (pp. 319–342). New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Fording, Richard C, and Patton, Dana J. 2019. “Medicaid Expansion and the Political Fate of the Governors Who Support It.” Policy Studies Journal 47:274–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Alan S., and Huber, Gregory A. 2009. “Partisanship and Economic Behavior: Do Partisan Differences in Economic Forecasts Predict Real Economic Behavior?” American Political Science Review 103 (3): 407–26..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grady, Dennis O. 1989. “Governors and Economic Development Policy: The Perception of their Role and the Reality of their Influence.” Policy Studies Journal 17 (4): 879–94..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamman, John A. 2004. “Career Experience and Performing Effectively as Governor.” The American Review of Public Administration 34 (2): 151–63..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, Susan B. 1999a. “Governors' Job Performance Ratings and State Unemployment: The Case of California.” State and Local Government Review 31 (1): 7–17..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, Susan B. 1999b. “‘Life Is Not Fair’: Governors' Job Performance Ratings and State Economies.” Political Research Quarterly 52 (1): 167–88..Google Scholar
Hayes, Danny, and Lawless, Jennifer L. 2015. “As Local News Goes, so goes Citizen Engagement: Media, Knowledge, and Participation in US House Elections.” The Journal of Politics 77 (2): 447–62..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herzik, Eric B. 1991. “Policy Agendas and Gubernatorial Leadership.” In Gubernatorial Leadership and State Policy, ed. Herzik, E. B. and Brown, B. W. (pp. 25–37). New York: Greenwood.Google Scholar
Hopkins, Daniel J. 2018. The Increasingly United States: How and Why American Political Behavior Nationalized. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hopkins, Daniel J., and Pettingill, Lindsay M. 2017. “Retrospective Voting in Big-city US Mayoral Elections.” Political Science Research and Methods 6:697–714.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howell, Susan E., and Vanderleeuw, James M. 1990. “Economic Effects on State Governors.” American Politics Quarterly 18 (2): 158–68..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hummel, Patrick, and Rothschild, David. 2014. “Fundamental Models for Forecasting Elections at the State Level.” Electoral Studies 35 (1): 123–39..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobs, Nicholas. 2017. “An Experimental Test of How Americans Think about Federalism.” Publius: The Journal of Federalism 47 (4): 572–98..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 2006. “The Polls: Polarized Opinion in the States: Partisan Differences in Approval Ratings of Governors, Senators, and George W. Bush.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 36 (4): 732–57..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kayser, Mark Andreas, and Peress, Michael. 2012. “Benchmarking across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparison.” American Political Science Review 106 (3): 661–84..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelleher, Christine A., and Wolak, Jennifer. 2007. “Explaining Public Confidence in the Branches of State Government.” Political Research Quarterly 60 (4): 707–21..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kenney, Patrick J., and Rice, Tom W. 1983. “Popularity and the Vote: The Gubernatorial Case.” American Politics Quarterly 11 (2): 237–41..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kincaid, John, and Cole, Richard L. 2010. “Citizen Attitudes toward Issues of Federalism in Canada, Mexico, and the United States.” Publius: The Journal of Federalism 41 (1): 53–75..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, James D., and Cohen, Jeffrey E. 2005. “What Determines a Governor's Popularity?” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 5 (3): 225–47..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krause, George A., and Melusky, Benjamin F. 2014. “Retrospective Economic Voting and the Intertemporal Dynamics of Electoral Accountability in the American States.” The Journal of Politics 76 (4): 1102–15..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langehennig, Stefani, Zamadics, Joseph, and Wolak, Jennifer. 2019. “State Policy Outcomes and State Legislative Approval.” Political Research Quarterly 72:929–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Layton, Charles, and Dorroh, Jennifer. 2002. “Sad State: Newspaper Budget-cutting has Triggered a Sharp Drop in the Number of Reporters Assigned to Cover the Nation's Increasingly Important Statehouses.” American Journalism Review 24 (5): 19–35..Google Scholar
Leighley, Jan E., and Nagler, Jonathan. 2013. Who Votes Now? Demographics, Issues, Inequality, and Turnout in the United States. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leyden, Kevin M., and Borrelli, Stephen A. 1995. “The Effect of State Economic Conditions on Gubernatorial Elections: Does Unified Government Make a Difference?” Political Research Quarterly 48 (2): 275–90..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lowry, Robert C., Alt, James E., and Ferree, Karen E. 1998. “Fiscal Policy Outcomes and Electoral Accountability in American States.” American Political Science Review 92 (4): 759–74..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyons, Jeffrey, Jaeger, William P., and Wolak, Jennifer. 2013. “The Roots of Citizens' Knowledge of State Politics.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 13 (2): 183–202..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacDonald, Jason A., and Sigelman, Lee. 1999. “Public Assessments of Gubernatorial Performance: A Comparative State Analysis.” American Politics Quarterly 27 (2): 201–15..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newman, Benjamin J., and Johnson, Joshua. 2012. “Ethnic Change, Concern over Immigration, and Approval of State Government.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 12 (4): 415–37..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niemi, Richard G., Bremer, John, and Heel, Michael. 1999. “Determinants of State Economic Perceptions.” Political Behavior 21 (2): 175–93..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niemi, Richard G., Stanley, Harold W., and Vogel, Ronald J. 1995. “State Economies and State Taxes: Do Voters Hold Governors Accountable?” American Journal of Political Science 39 (4): 936–57..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orth, Deborah A. 2001. “Accountability in a Federal System: The Governor, the President, and Economic Expectations.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 1 (4): 412–32..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Owen, Andrew. 2011. The Negativity Effect in Retrospective Voting. PhD dissertation, Department of Politics, Princeton University, Princeton.Google Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Shapiro, Robert Y. 1992. The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Partin, Randall W. 1995. “Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections: Is the State Executive Held Accountable?” American Politics Quarterly 23 (1): 81–95..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peltzman, Sam. 1987. “Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections.” The American Economic Review 77 (2): 293–97..Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr. 2000. Elections as Instruments of Democracy: Majoritarian and Proportional Visions. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr., and Whitten, Guy D. 1993. “A Cross-national Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391–414..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richardson, Lilliard E. Jr., Konisky, David M., and Milyo, Jeffrey. 2012. “Public Approval of U. S. State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 37 (1): 99–116..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richardson, Lilliard E., and Milyo, Jeffrey. 2016. “Giving the People What They Want? Legislative Polarization and Public Approval of State Legislatures.” State and Local Government Review 48 (4): 270–81..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodden, Jonathan, and Wibbels, Erik. 2011. “Dual Accountability and the Nationalization of Party Competition: Evidence from Four Federations.” Party Politics 17 (5): 629–53..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogers, Jonathan. 2016. “Tea Party Support and Perceptions of Local Economic Conditions.” Electoral Studies 42 (1): 91–98..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rogers, Steven. 2017. “Electoral Accountability for State Legislative Roll Calls and Ideological Representation.” American Political Science Review 111 (3): 555–71..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rozin, Paul, and Royzman, Edward B. 2001. “Negativity Bias, Negativity Dominance, and Contagion.” Personality and Social Psychology Review 5 (4): 296–320..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shaker, Lee. 2009. “Citizens' Local Political Knowledge and the Role of Media Access.” Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly 86 (4): 809–26..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Soroka, Stuart N. 2014. Negativity in Democratic Politics: Causes and Consequences. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, Robert M. 1990. “Economic Voting for Governor and US Senator: The Electoral Consequences of Federalism.” The Journal of Politics 52 (1): 29–53..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svoboda, Craig J. 1995. “Retrospective Voting in Gubernatorial Elections: 1982 and 1986.” Political Research Quarterly 48 (1): 135–50..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, Charles D. 2012. “Governors as Economic Problem Solvers: A Research Commentary.” Economic Development Quarterly 26 (3): 267–76..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, Amos, and Kahneman, Daniel. 1991. “Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-dependent Model.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (4): 1039–61..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vining, Richard L., Wilhelm, Teena, Hiers, Sara E., and Marcin, Phil. 2010. “Patterns of Newspaper Reporting on State Supreme Courts.” Justice System Journal 31 (3): 273–89..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weinberg, Micah. 2010. “Measuring Governors' Political Orientations Using Words as Data.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 10 (1): 96–109..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolfers, Justin. 2002. Are Voters Rational? Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections. Stanford: Graduate School of Business, Stanford University.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, John R. 2012. “Unemployment and the Democratic Electoral Advantage.” American Political Science Review 106 (4): 685–702..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Cohen supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Cohen supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 246.5 KB