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On the Methods Pursued in Valuing the Risks of Life Assurance Companies and on The Division of Surplus

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 May 2015

Extract

In a Paper read a short time ago before the Institute, I endeavoured to show the inexpediency of using, for the purposes of valuation, Tables constructed on the principle which characterises the Northampton Table. I did not intend to pursue this particular branch of the subject further ; but, finding that more difference of opinion exists in reference to it than I was aware of, and considering that the practice of making valuations by the Northampton Table, and by Tables framed upon similar principles, is still carried on to a great extent, I am led to offer a few more observations upon the matter previously to entering upon the consideration of some other questions, the correct solution of which materially depends upon a right understanding of this one.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1849

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References

page 10 note * Since writing this paper, my attention has been called by a friend to the following observations, made by Mr. Babbage in his evidence on Friendly Societies—Report, 1827, pp. 29, 30:— “If I am asked which Tables I should wish to use in making any calculations relative to the poorer orders of society, I should state that my object would be to get such Tables as exactly and perfectly represented those classes throughout all their ages; but it may be said that this is unsafe, and that others should be taken where the deaths are more numerous than those that really happen. My view in all cases is, let us get, as nearly as we can the law of mortality of the class for which we want to calculate and add to the prices computed from it some proportional part sufficient to insure the safety of the establishment which uses them. I strongly object to using Tables giving a greater mortality than is expected to take place, a course which has sometimes been defended on the ground of safety to the establishment. Safety is much more certainly secured by judging as nearly as possible the true risk, and adding an additional sum for security. If Tables, not representing the mortality of the class for whom they are designed are employed, every step in the reasonings that are deduced from them is liable to increased error; and if the calculations are at all complicated, the errors so introduced may not improbably act on the opposite side to that which they were introduced to favour.“

page 15 note * If S denote the sum resulting from the addition of the true premiums per cent., taken at the ages 21, 22, 23, 24, &c., to 65, and if it be proposed to increase them one third, then and the total annual contribution to extra contingencies, irrespective of commission, will always be equal to (total sum assured).